South Asia

Can Egypt Avoid Pakistan's Fate?

Michele Dunne and Shuja Nawaz — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:23:44 -0600

One year after the revolution that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian military is closing down civil society organizations and trying to manipulate the constitution-writing process to serve its narrow interests. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, where the military has also held sway for more than half the country’s existence — for much of that time, with America’s blessing — a new civil-military crisis is brewing.

For the United States, the parallels are clear and painful. Egypt and Pakistan are populous Muslim-majority nations in conflict-ridden regions, and both have long been allies and recipients of extensive military and economic aid.

Historically, American aid tapers off in Pakistan whenever civilians come to power. And in Egypt, Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama both resisted pressure from Congress to cut aid to Mr. Mubarak despite his repression of peaceful dissidents.

It is no wonder that both Egyptians and Pakistanis express more anger than appreciation toward the United States. They have seen Washington turn a blind eye to human-rights abuses and antidemocratic practices because of a desire to pursue regional objectives — Israeli security in the case of Egypt, and fighting Al Qaeda in the case of Pakistan.

The question now is whether the United States will, a year after the Egyptian revolution, stand by and allow the Pakistani model of military dominance and a hobbled civilian government to be replicated on the Nile.

Pakistan and Egypt each have powerful intelligence and internal security agencies that have acquired extra-legal powers they will not relinquish easily. Pakistan’s history of fomenting insurgencies in neighboring countries has caused serious problems for the United States. And Egypt’s internal security forces have been accused of involvement in domestic terrorist attacks and sectarian violence. (However, Washington has long seen Egypt’s military as a stabilizing force that keeps the peace with Israel.)

The danger is that in the future, without accountability to elected civilian authorities, the Egyptian military and security services will seek to increase their power by manipulating Islamic extremist organizations in volatile and strategically sensitive areas like the Sinai Peninsula.

Despite the security forces’ constant meddling in politics, Pakistan at least has a Constitution that establishes civilian supremacy over the military. Alarmingly, Egypt’s army is seeking even greater influence than what Pakistan’s top brass now enjoys: an explicit political role, and freedom from civilian oversight enshrined in law.

Egypt’s army was once considered heroic for siding with peaceful demonstrators against Mr. Mubarak, but it has badly mishandled the country in the past year. The riot at a soccer match on Wednesday that killed around 70 people underscored the leadership’s failure to undertake badly needed police reform and restore security. The economy is teetering, peaceful demonstrators have been tried in military courts, anti-Christian violence has spiked and ministers appointed by the military have hounded civil society groups that advocate government accountability, budget transparency, human rights and free elections.

A dismayed Congress has attached conditions to future military assistance to Egypt (now $1.3 billion a year), requiring the Obama administration to certify that the military government is maintaining peace with Israel, allowing a transition to civilian rule and protecting basic freedoms — or to waive the conditions on national security grounds — if it wants to keep aid flowing.

The Egyptian military is clearly not meeting at least two of those three conditions right now. Consequently, the Obama administration should not certify compliance, nor should it invoke the national security waiver by arguing that Egyptian-Israeli peace is paramount and that Egypt’s military is the only bulwark against Islamist domination of the country — because both of these arguments are deeply flawed.

First, hardly anyone in Egypt favors war with Israel, and a freeze or suspension of American aid would not change that. Second, continuing support to an Egyptian military that is bent on hobbling a liberal civil society would only strengthen Islamist domination. Islamist groups won some 70 percent of seats in the recent parliamentary elections, but they will now face tremendous pressure to solve the deep economic and political problems that caused the revolution.

In Egypt, as in Pakistan, the ultimate solution is a peaceful transfer of power to elected, accountable civilians and the removal of the military’s overt and covert influence from the political scene. At a minimum, Egypt should establish the clear supremacy of the civilian government over the military and allow an unfettered civil society to flourish.

Washington should suspend military assistance to Egypt until those conditions are met. Taking that difficult step now could help Egypt avoid decades of the violence, terrorism and cloak-and-dagger politics that continue to plague Pakistan.

Michele Dunne, a former White House and State Department official, and Shuja Nawaz, the author of “Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within,” are the directors of the Middle East and South Asia centers, respectively, at the Atlantic Council. This article was originally published in The New York Times. Photo credit: Getty Images.

Jonathan Paris Discusses Syrian Crisis with France 24

Jason Harmala — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:39:38 -0600

Jonathan Paris, nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, appeared on France 24 to discuss Russia's support for the Assad regime and what it means for a possible UN resolution against Syria.

Watch the segment at France 24

Shuja Nawaz Interview on Pakistan Instability

Jason Harmala — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 09:01:38 -0600

In an exclusive interview with Kamna Arora of Zeenews.com, Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council, discusses the current turmoil in Pakistan.

The interview, courtesy of zeenews.com, can be found below:

Pakistan is in a mess. A brewing political crisis over corruption, presidential immunity, and Memogate scandal has pushed Pakistan on the brink of chaos. The political turmoil has all but paralysed governance in Pakistan. The hopes of the US to rebuild ties with Pakistan after the deadly NATO raid in 2011 have also faded.

The civilian government, which is already under fire for the economic woes faced by the masses, is locked in a conflict with the Army over a secret memo asking for the US’ help in preventing a coup in the aftermath of the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden in May last year. The revelation put a question mark on the fate of Pakistani government, which prides itself of being the longest-running civilian administration in the South Asian country’s coup-marred history.

Kamna: Is there any likelihood of a coup in Pakistan?

Nawaz: A coup is always possible, but seems highly improbable. The public conditions are not ripe. The Army is disinclined to step into things directly. Conditions would have to deteriorate rapidly and badly for that to be justified.

Kamna: How do you read Gilani's move to appear before the SC at a time in Pakistan when the government, military and judiciary are at loggerheads? Will his move calm brewing tensions among the institutions in Pakistan?

Nawaz: He is the ‘Great Mollifier’ and ‘His Master’s Voice’ at the same time, and will try to buy the government time until the Senate elections when it will be in a stronger position politically. If things turn out badly after the next hearing on February 01, he may offer himself as the sacrifice to stave off further action against the government of President Zardari. Gilani’s appearance on January 19 before the Court was a victory for the Court and for the rule of law in Pakistan.

Kamna: It is suspected that the military is using the judiciary to topple the current government before the March polls for the Senate, which the PPP is expected to win. In such a case, can one conclude that the judiciary is compromised in Pakistan?

Nawaz: I do not buy the conspiracy theories about the military-judiciary alliance. It is too glib an explanation. There are mutual suspicions that preclude them working together. They may have converging aims but operate on parallel tracks. The judiciary also has on its docket a case against the ISI on the missing persons’ case, among other things. The military would be wary of that becoming an issue again. The court has too much to lose to become associated with the military or any single political party.

Kamna: The deepening row between the government, and Army and judiciary has led to renewed concerns over the stability of Pakistan. How would that affect the whole region?

Nawaz: The state is still viable and relatively stable. The government has weak legs. It can rectify the situation with bold economic actions to stave off a deepening recession and heightened inflation. An unstable Pakistan has consequences for the whole region, from Afghanistan to India. Therefore, one must look to normalisation with India as key to stability in the region. India has a chance to contribute to that stability by reducing Pakistan’s paranoia about its intentions and actions in the region against Pakistan. Pakistan must try to reduce India’s fears about fomenting unrest via proxies, past, present, or future. Open borders and trade are going to be keys to these efforts.

Kamna: No civilian government in Pakistan has ever finished its term. What chance do you think Zardari's government has of being the first civilian government in Pakistan's history to serve its full term?

Nawaz: A full term is not the key. A natural end to the term is a more appropriate way of looking at this situation. If the government fails to engender trust, it must be prepared to depart through constitutional means via a vote of no confidence in Parliament or by calling for fresh elections. There is nothing sacrosanct about completing a full five-year term. If the current government shows it wants to solve Pakistan’s structural problems, it may win another election this year, short of the end of its term, and come back stronger than before. But it has to show its bona fides in that regard with actions and not words. It still has that opportunity.

Kamna: How can the whole crisis between the Army and the government be defused?

Nawaz: Frequent, direct, and honest communications. No game playing; and no playing to the gallery of public opinion. They tend not to listen to each other and avoid tough questions. The government needs to take ownership of the fight against militancy and not outsource it to the military. There is no military solution to the insurgency and militancy.

If General Kayani says he wants to shun politics, take him up on his word. And begin to govern effectively so he or his successor does not become the default option of the disaffected masses. Don’t try to bring external actors into this discussion, domestic or foreign. Civilian supremacy is enshrined in Pakistan’s Constitution. Government must earn the right to that supremacy by its vision, performance, and honesty. But, as the Urdu saying goes, “In this Hamaam, everyone is naked!”

South Asia Predictions for 2012

Adrienne Chuck — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 09:55:43 -0600

The South Asia Center receives guidance and support from many experts throughout the world. Our senior fellows, guest-speakers, Center patrons, and visitors contribute heavily to the Center’s mission to “wage peace,” and engage the international community in the region. The Center asked our contributors the simple, but key question, “What you do expect in 2012?” Click on the names below to read their responses, and if you want to see what our experts said last year, click here.

What Our Experts Think:

Shikha Bhatnagar, South Asia Center Associate Director, Atlantic Council
Mohan Guruswamy, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Zahid Hussain, Pakistan Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center
Ayesha Jalal, Council Nonresident Senior Fellow
Sunjoy Joshi, Director, Observer Research Foundation
Shuja Nawaz, South Asia Center Director, Atlantic Council
Jonathan Paris, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Ahmed Rashid, Pakistan journalist and author of Decent into Chaos and Taliban
Barbara Slavin, Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Moeed Yusuf, South Asia Adviser, United States Institute of Peace

Shikha Bhatnagar

US-Pakistan relations will continue to spiral/plummet downwards due to lack of creative thinking from either party. However, India-Pakistan relations will remain stable and may even improve slightly if some of the recent economic measures move forward.

Manmohan Singh will continue to hold power, although it will continue to weaken, and Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru/Gandhi dynasty, will officially assume presidency of the Congress Party.

Shikha Bhatnagar is an Associate Director with the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.

Mohan Guruswamy

So what is my prediction? It is simply this. India will still be among the fastest growing nations in the world. Maybe even faster than China? But the GDP growth would slow down even further, maybe by another 1% or another $45 billion in terms of opportunity cost? Maybe we can live with that? But money lost is money lost.

Mohan Guruswamy is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center. Guruswamy heads the Centre for Policy Alternatives, an independent and privately funded think tank in New Delhi.

Zahid Hussain

[The] worsening political crisis will lead to fresh elections in Pakistan, but change of government may not restore stability.

Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and writer, a senior editor with Newsline and a correspondent for The Times of London, Newsweek and The Wall Street Journal. He is a Pakistan Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

Ayesha Jalal

Calls for early elections and hopes of initiating change through the ballot box notwithstanding, a reference to the voters in both India and Pakistan will throw up a fragmented result and the continuation of coalition governments in the foreseeable future, making the problems of governance in the subcontinent increasingly more intractable. The regions in both countries are set to trump the center.

Ayesha Jalal is a non-resident senior fellow with the South Asia Center and is also the Mary Richardson Professor of History at Tufts University and a MacArthur Fellow.

Sunjoy Joshi

West Asia - Besides the variety of strains of the Arab Spring and the selective impulse in the West for regime change, Iran will dominate the discourse on West Asia. Iran, often perceived as being driven by an Imperial urge to dominate and control its neighbourhood, may infact be a victim of profound sense of insecurity that stems froms its neighbourhood, inimical and different (Pakistan and the Arab states) who, Iran fears will inevitably seek to politically and (more importantly) culturally subjugate it. Faced with a large, politically aware and youthful population under economic pressure, the regime will continue trying to balance multiple political needs - regime stability, external security and economic development.

In 2012, Iran will, due to a confluence of factors, repeatedly try to signal its willingness to negotiate. However, the US may remain trapped by its domestic as well as strategic percepts and will probably miss the opportunity to craft a culturally sensitive and politically deft response. Israel, the Arab states and Pakistan (each for their own reasons) will all present narratives that will make responding positively difficult.

Bangladesh - The Sheikh Hasina government will continue to lose popular support because of its abject failure to fulfill promises made to the people. BNP will gain in strength. This will be played out in the streets more often in the new year causing wide spread disruptions in major cities and increase the level of anxiety and instability as a whole.

The Sheikh Hasina government's repressive measures against party opponents will further galvanize the opposition. With little investment in public infrastructure despite a consistent economic growth of 6 plus per cent, crucial issues like employment, infrastructure development and poverty alleviation will remain largely unaddressed.

Pakistan - Pakistan will remain political unstable. The civil-military relationship will remain at odds with public spats. The next big spat on the horizon could be over the appointment of the new ISI chief or the extension of Shuja Pasha's tenure. PPP's influence is likely to erode rapidly as Zardari and Gillani blunder along, without really delivering anything substantial in terms of economic development. The government's predicament is going to become more acute as gas and power supply crises becomes a major issue in the coming summer months. The erosion in the texture of the relationship is unlikely to be replaced by its growing and strong relationship with China There will be a more persuasive attempt to better relationship with India, at least on the economic side but there are increasing hiccups on the way.

India - India’s challenge remain mostly domestic and its increased and more democratic expressions will often be chaotic and at the cost of national progress. 2012 will witness India actually having to bear the economic cost of plurality in policy making and the slowdown (relative) in rate of growth coupled with social schemes will strain ability of the government to cater to large and diverse demands. Pakistan will remain a unresolved issue and the increasing Chinese influence would necessitate India entering into a number of coalitions which will stretch the strategic and ideological reach of India.

Sunjoy Joshi is the Director of the Observer Research Foundation, Delhi, India. He is a Visiting Associate at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, London, as well as Distinguished Visitor to the Programme on Energy and Sustainable Development, University of Stanford, USA.

Shuja Nawaz

In India, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may choose to step down. Pakistan will try muddling through, but the civil military divide and an assertive Supreme Court may claim more victims, starting with the Prime Minister. Afghanistan will witness an assertive President Karzai, especially in his dealing with the United States. Troop withdrawals may speed up.

Shuja Nawaz is the Director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.

Jonathan Paris

Before I present my predictions for 2012, let me begin with a paragraph from my South Asia Center predictions in January 2010: "In addition to the obvious trouble spots – Afghanistan, Iraq and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict – the countries that will preoccupy the Obama administration in the coming year are the PITEY nations: Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Yemen…. The big question for Egypt is the coming of a post-Hosni Mubarak government. If President Mubarak can hold on for another year, Egypt will remain a stable, moderate and pro-U.S. country anchoring the Middle East in relative peace. If, however, a succession crisis emerges this year while Iran is still under Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, the Middle East could be in for some turmoil." (Note: my 2010 prediction on Egypt’s succession crisis was ahead by a year as Tahrir Square erupted on Jan. 25, 2011.) See “South Asia in 2010: A Pivotal Year”, The New Atlanticist, Jan. 6, 2010.

For 2012, I expand my predictions beyond South Asia to include, again, the Middle East. Since I have been doing a good deal of research on the future of Europe these past 18 months, I make a few brief remarks about the prospects for some of the European countries close to the Middle East/South Asia.

Starting with the PITEY countries, Pakistan will muddle through in 2012. As I concluded in my Prospects for Pakistan Report in 2010 , the US will have an increasingly difficult time getting Pakistan to promote US interests. This is not the same thing as predicting the rise of an Islamist government. I simply mean that the US is and will continue to be unpopular in the Pakistan street, and President Zardari appears to be the least anti-American of any possible alternative ruler.

Pakistan’s neighbor, Afghanistan, will do better than expected in 2012 as the Afghan Army picks up momentum. The real crunch won’t happen until the following year, when Afghan and Pakistani troops start clashing along the border, with the more experienced Pakistan army prevailing. It wouldn’t surprise me to see negotiations between the NATO forces, Karzai’s government and the Taliban under either or both auspices of Pakistan and Qatar. But watch out for the Haqqani network to play a spoiler role.

Iran is going to heat up this year. Internally, the regime appears brittle. Regionally, Iran will continue to be on the defensive as the Arab Spring is more of a threat than a benefit for the regime. Iran’s strategic ally, Assad, will either leave Syria or retreat into the mountains in northeast Syria, where he will wage continued resistance and Syria will likely be weak and divided. The Iranians may maintain some access via the Assad hideaway to Hezbollah, but it will not be like the old days. Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah will either leave the stage or maintain a low profile.

Internationally, the sanctions will be ratcheted upwards and one of two things will happen. Either Iran will freeze its nuclear program (unlikely) or it will provoke a military response. I am very skeptical that Iran will be close to having nuclear weapons at the end of 2012. I leave it to the reader to work out why.

Egypt will be tempestuous and unstable. The economy will be in even more dire straits than at the beginning of 2012. The military and the Islamic parties will continue to spar and negotiate at the same time. The more secular political parties and the Tahrir Square movement will struggle in the elections but will remain a force on the street. Young and female Egyptians will not lie down and watch their country go backwards to a medieval state. The 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty will remain in letter but not in substance as cooperation will diminish due to populist sentiments on the Egyptian street across the board from secular to fundamentalist. But all is not bleak even on that front as the Egyptian public will gradually and grudgingly conclude that peace, or at least non-war, is not such a bad idea as compared to a seventh Israeli-Egyptian war.

Turkey’s regional leadership aspirations will come down a notch or two as Erdogan’s health problems, Kurdish problems and economic problems dent his popularity. The West will become increasingly disenchanted with Erdogan’s brinksmanship and mercurial personality, while the Arab countries, especially the ones with surging Islamic parties, will look to the AKP as a kind of role model, apart from disagreements over Sharia law.

Bahrain and Yemen will continue to muddle through. The Khalifas will remain in power in Bahrain. I am not as sure about the Saleh family in Yemen. The Arab monarchies will hang in there. Algeria will be facing challenging times when President Bouteflika leaves the scene, but it is less likely that the army will lose control in 2012 than sometime after 2012.

Hamas will reach an agreement with the PA in the first half of the year and then sever the agreement in the second half of the year. Netanyahu will call for elections sometime in 2012 or early 2013. If what I predict happens in Iran, a dovish party will eventually gain enough seats to form a coalition, just barely, to replace the current Netanyahu government.

Turning to the north Mediterranean, Italy will do surprisingly well in 2012 as it brings its deficits down and successfully refinances its enormous debt coming due in 2012. Growth will remain elusive, however.

The other ‘club med’ countries will struggle, especially Greece. Spain will battle high unemployment amidst an increasingly unpopular austerity program. France will no longer have a triple A rating as it comes to grip with its rising public debt, lack of job creation, slow growth, pervasive welfare state, and long term immigration issues.

Germany’s economy will continue to hum, despite some blips, but Germany will encounter increasing resistance to its austerity mantra from the club med countries. The Nordic countries will thrive.

The euro will hold, and the recession in continental Europe and the UK will be mild, with the economy ending 2012 in an upswing. I am NOT picking the US President for 2012.

Jonathan Paris is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center . He is also an associate fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) at King’s College London

Ahmed Rashid

The talks between the US, the Afghan government and the Taliban will make progress allowing for a more peaceful situation before Nato pull out in 2014. However the internal political, ethnic and economic crisis in Afghanistan will worsen.

Pakistan-US relations will remain fraught despite a temporary patch up in the spring. Pakistan will remain at odds with the US on its plans for Afghanistan. Pakistan internal economic, social and political crisis will worsen despite elections that will be bought forward to the autumn of this year.

Overhanging the region will be the strong possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran which the US will back and will create enormous problems for the US in its relations with both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Ahmed Rashid is a renowned Pakistan journalist and writer. He is the author of Descent into Chaos and a recently updated edition of Taliban.

Barbara Slavin

There will be no war with Iran, but there will be some nail-biting moments courtesy of both Iran, and Israel, which reserves for itself the right to strike Iran without telling the US in advance. Oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel even though the Obama administration will postpone implementing new sanctions that could curtail European imports of Iranian oil. Iran will continue creeping toward the nuclear weapons threshold but will not cross the line.

Barbara Slavin is resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. Ms. Slavin is an expert on U.S. foreign policy and the author of a 2007 book on Iran entitled Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S. and the Twisted Path to Confrontation.

Moeed Yusuf

As far as the Af-Pak theater is concerned, 2012 will be filled with more crises, more finger pointing, and more mudslinging from all sides involved. But there is a reasonable likelihood of a parallel positive movement on the reconciliation front which is just about the last thing holding partnerships like the US-Pakistan one together for now.

Moeed W. Yusuf is the South Asia adviser at the United States Institute of Peace. He works at the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention and is responsible for managing the Institute’s Pakistan program.

ABOUT THE SOUTH ASIA CENTER

The Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center was launched in 2009, under the leadership of Shuja Nawaz. The Center serves as the Atlantic Council’s focal point for work on Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan as well as on relations between these countries and China, Central Asia, Turkey, the Arab world, Europe and the United States. It seeks to foster partnerships with key institutions in the region to establish itself as a forum for dialogue between decision makers in South Asia, the U.S. and NATO and continues to “wage peace” in the region.. These deliberations cover internal and external security, governance, trade, economic development, education and other issues. The Center remains committed to working with stakeholders from the region itself, in addition to partners and experts in the United States and Europe to offer comprehensive analyses and practicable recommendations for policymakers.

Waging Peace

South Asia has and will continue to play a central role in global stability and economic growth. The South Asia Center is excited about following and contributing to this narrative and “waging peace” in the region. We welcome your support and feedback. For more information on how you can get involved or to join our mailing list, please contact us at southasia@acus.org or call 202-778-4997.

Photo credit: Getty Images.

Shuja Nawaz on Pakistan's Political Crisis

Jason Harmala — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:48:04 -0600

Atlantic Council South Asia Center director Shuja Nawaz appeared on The Voice of Russia radio to speak on the power struggle between the Pakistani government and military forces amidst the current volatile atmosphere.

Listen to the segment on Voice of Russia

US-Israel and Iran: Looming Military Confrontation?

Adrienne Chuck — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 10:18:46 -0600

The Atlantic Council's Iran Task Force held a public briefing on January 17 on the rising conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Tensions are mounting as the United States and Europe tighten economic sanctions against Iran, and Iran responds with a ten-day naval exercise in the Persian Gulf, and threatens to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the United States and Israel are preparing for their own joint military exercise, “Austere Challenge 12.” Are the chances for a military confrontation between Israel and Iran and between the United States and Iran increasing? Would Israel consult the United States before attacking the Iranian nuclear program? What would be the consequences for the region and world economy?

The Iran Task Force, co-chaired by Atlantic Council Chairman Senator Chuck Hagel and Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat, seeks to perform a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s internal political landscape, its role in the region and globally, and any basis for an improved relationship with the West. Please click here for more information about the Iran Task Force.

A discussion with

Michael Eisenstadt
Director, Military and Security Studies Program
Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow
Brookings Institution

Introduction by

Shuja Nawaz
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council

Moderated by

Barbara Slavin
Senior Fellow, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council

VIDEO (courtesy of Link TV)

TRANSCRIPT

AUDIO (.mp3)

New Atlanticist Analysis

US Worries Mount over Blowback of Israeli Attack on Iran - Barbara Slavin

Media Mentions

Are U.S., Iran Headed Toward War? - Michael D. Mosettig, PBS NewsHour
Experts discuss hazards of military confrontation with Iran - Ardavon Naimi, National Iranian American Council
The Iranian oil embargo: does this mean war? - Julian Borger, The Guardian
Obama’s pressure on Iran raises fear of a military clash - Kristina Wong, The Washington Times

The Iran Task Force is generously sponsored by the Ploughshares Fund.

Whither Pakistan? A Conversation with Imran Khan

Adrienne Chuck — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 13:41:20 -0600

On January 13, the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center held a video-teleconference with Imran Khan, founder of the Tehreek-e-Insaaf Party. Imran Khan, Pakistan's World Cup-winning cricket captain has been the leader and voice of the Tehreek-e-Insaaf Party for the past fifteen years. He has been a vocal critic of Pakistan's perceived corrupt political system and is being seen by many as a transformational and clean politician who can reform the current system.

Pakistan's current political scene is in a state of flux, as the ruling Pakistan People's Party heads a weak and sometimes fractious coalition. The recent speculation of the army staging a silent coup while President Asif Ali Zardari recovered from a stroke has only deepened speculation and emboldened opposition parties to challenge the current government. Mr. Khan and the Tehreek-e-Insaaf Party have managed to gain momentum and stage rallies in key cities that have attracted over hundreds of thousands of supporters.

With early general elections being forecasted for later this year, will Mr. Khan have enough time to mount a successful challenge to the status quo in Pakistani politics? How does he view the Pakistani Taliban and their Afghan Counterparts? The video conference featured how Khan plans to handle the internal militancy, Pakistan's relations with its neighbors and the United States, and the military's influence in Pakistan's polity.

Featuring

Imran Khan
Founder
Tehreek-e-Insaaf (Movement for Justice) Party

Moderated by

Shuja Nawaz
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council

AUDIO (.mp3)

MEDIA MENTIONS

Like the country, army supports PTI: Imran - Huma Imtiaz, The Express Tribune
Imran Khan says he’s not anti-West - AFP/Dawn
Imran Khan calls for new ties with India, says he's not anti-west either - Chidanand Rajghatta, The Times of India
Imran Khan says he is not anti-West - Daily Times
Whither Pakistan: Imran Khan at the Atlantic Council - The Bangladesh Chronicle

Barbara Slavin Discusses Iran on Public Radio

Jason Harmala — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 08:32:31 -0600

Barbara Slavin, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, and member of its Iran Task Force, appeared on WAMU 88.5 FM's Kojo Nnamdi Show and KCRW 89.9 FM's To The Point to discuss the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Rowshan and what it means for US-Iran relations.

South Asia

Can Egypt Avoid Pakistan's Fate?

Jonathan Paris Discusses Syrian Crisis with France 24

Watch the segment at France 24

Shuja Nawaz Interview on Pakistan Instability

South Asia Predictions for 2012

What Our Experts Think:

ABOUT THE SOUTH ASIA CENTER

Shuja Nawaz on Pakistan's Political Crisis

Listen to the segment on Voice of Russia

US-Israel and Iran: Looming Military Confrontation?

A discussion with

Introduction by

Moderated by

VIDEO (courtesy of Link TV)

TRANSCRIPT

AUDIO (.mp3)

New Atlanticist Analysis

Media Mentions

Whither Pakistan? A Conversation with Imran Khan

Featuring

Moderated by

AUDIO (.mp3)

MEDIA MENTIONS

Barbara Slavin Discusses Iran on Public Radio

WAMU 88.5 FM Kojo Nnamdi Show: On the Brink with Iran?

KCRW 89.9 FM To The Point: Tensions Sour Between Iran and the West (Slavin's segment begins around 9:05)