Georgia

What's Georgia Going To Get At The NATO Summit?

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:48:08 -0600

From Joshua Kucera, the EurasiaNet: Georgia's prospects in NATO, after being more or less left for dead in the wake of the 2008 war with Russia, have lately appeared to be improving. NATO has recently changed its rhetoric on Georgia, for the first time calling it an "aspirant" along with several Balkan countries. And U.S. officials have said Georgia is making "significant progress" that should be recognized at the next NATO summit, in Chicago in May.

So what does this mean? Does Georgia have a shot at NATO membership after all? As a story on EurasiaNet's main page today explains, not really: President Obama, after his meeting with his Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili, used the word "ultimately" to describe Georgia's entrance into NATO, which suggests he doesn't see it happening any time soon. And even if the White House were to again back Georgian NATO membership as strongly as the Bush administration did pre-August 2008, there would still be the matter of the big Western European countries who oppose Georgia's membership. So what to do?

The defense official quoted in the EurasiaNet piece had more thoughts on this (though there wasn't room in that piece). A Membership Action Plan, the holy grail for Georgia, is not a possibility. That subject won't even be discussed at the summit: remember, this will be in May of an election year. "It's about U.S. internal politics, so this summit needs to look good. We don't need a food fight like in '08, between us and the Germans, or the pro-Georgia camp vs. the camp that's not too keen on Georgia. We don't need that. So the whole Georgia issue isn't going to be raised," the official said. . . .

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, speaking to Russian journalists has weighed in on even this slight warming of ties between Tbilisi and Washington . . .

Medvedev made the remarks after one of the participants of the meeting told him with regret, that although after the August, 2008 war Russia managed to secure international “informal arms embargo” against Georgia, situation was now changing with Georgia “restarting to buy arms from around the world”; this participant of the meeting also said that there were speculations about a trade-off – Russia turning a blind eye on Georgia’s rearmament and in exchange securing Tbilisi’s go-ahead for Russia’s WTO accession.

Makes you wonder, though, what's being said behind closed doors. (photo: AP)

The Day After: President Saakashvili on Post-Revolutionary Societies and What Comes After the Arab Spring

Adrienne Chuck — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 13:59:03 -0600

On February 1, the Atlantic Council held a discussion with the Honorable Mikheil Saakashvili, president of Georgia, at the US Institute of Peace.

The 2011 wave of revolutions and protests has sent a clear message to the international community: freedom, democracy and accountability matter. Nearly a decade before the Arab uprisings, the color revolutions had swept across Eastern Europe. As North Africa and other parts of the world seek to reinvent themselves, Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, drew on Georgia's democratic transformation to explore the common challenges and opportunities that post-revolutionary societies face. His talk addressed the myriad of issues that these new governments must undertake from building democratic institutions to confronting corruption and earning the trust of their empowered citizens. Stating that these leaders should “ride the wave” of revolutions, he urged that they undertake reforms immediately while popular support is strong. The president also mentioned his meeting with President Obama, and their discussion about launching a free trade agreement and reaffirming Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions.

VIDEO (Courtesy of USIP)

President Saakashvili's Prepared Remarks

Featuring

Dr. Richard H. Solomon
President
US Institute of Peace

Mr. Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President
Atlantic Council

The Honorable Mikheil Saakashvili
President of Georgia

Photo credit: USIP

Obama supports Georgia 'ultimately' becoming a member of NATO

Jorge Benitez — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 11:20:51 -0600

From Barack Obama, the White House: On defense and security, I expressed my gratitude to the President for the extraordinary contributions that have been made by the Georgian military in Afghanistan. They have been one of the most dedicated contributors outside of NATO to the ISAF effort, and in fact have taken on some significant casualties as a consequence of those efforts.

We have talked about how we will continue to strengthen our defense cooperation, and there are a wide range of areas where we are working together. And I reaffirmed to the President and assured him that the United States will continue to support Georgia’s aspirations to ultimately become a member of NATO. (photo: Getty)

Georgia warns against ‘offensive’ Russian exercise

Jorge Benitez — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:13:41 -0600

From Democracy and Freedom Watch: Russia’s South Strategic Command is planning the exercise ‘Caucasus 2012’ in September. . . .

It will involve not only army but also border guards, air force, interior ministry, security and emergency services, as well as what is called the Air Defense Force Management System. . . .

According to Russian defense sources, unlike in previous exercised, this year it will also take place inside Georgia’s breakaway regions, Abkhazia and the South Ossetia, as well as in Armenia.

Georgia’s Foreign Ministry warned Tuesday that the exercise is offensive in nature and a provocation meant to stoke ‘permanent tension’ in Georgia and the Black Sea region.

From Joshua Kucera, the Bug Pit: Russia will be holding a series of military exercises in the North Caucasus, Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia this fall, reportedly in preparation for a possible U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. The exercises, called Kavkaz-2012, will be held in September and won't be tactical/operational but strategic (i.e. won't involve large numbers of troops). The exercises will, however, include officers from the breakaway Georgian territories. The focus on surveillance, air defense and logistics suggests that Russia is tailoring the exercise to prepare for a U.S.-Israel-Iran war, says Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta:

As suggested by the head of the Center for Military Forecasting, Colonel Anatoly Tsyganok, "Preparations for the Kavkaz-2012 exercises seems to have begun already largely due to the increasing military tensions in the Persian Gulf." "In a possible war against Iran may be drawn some former Soviet countries of South Caucasus. How, then, to ensure the viability of Russian troops stationed abroad, for example, in Armenia? Apparently, the General Staff will plan some proactive measures, including learning to organize in critical logistic supply of troops," said the expert. (Graphic: Hague Justice Portal)

Barack Obama’s new defence plans neglect Europe at their peril

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 13:46:15 -0600

From the Economist: Perhaps the least remarked upon part of the new strategy is the seemingly bleak future for American forces in Europe. . . .

The number of European-based American soldiers has already fallen from 213,000 in 1989 to only about 41,000 today. It has already been agreed that one of the US Army Europe’s four combat brigades will return to America by 2015. Its commander, Lieut-General Mark Hertling, has recommended a unit and a schedule. However, the Pentagon may now want more, running the risk of downgrading the United States European Command (EUCOM) into little more than a hollowed out headquarters. General Hertling says “there is a tension between the budget and national security and my worry would be that forces will be eliminated that ensure American interests are protected. Once eliminated, they are hard to regenerate. . . .”

The thinking behind the “rebalancing” looks flawed for several reasons. The first is that far from being on oasis of stability, EUCOM’s 51-country region covers some pretty flammable trouble spots, among them Georgia’s border with Russia, Kosovo’s border with Serbia and Turkey’s border with Iraq and Syria. Israel is also within EUCOM. There are less conventional security threats too, from terrorists moving between safe havens to cyber attacks.

The second is that—quite apart from possible flashpoints in its own region—Europe is closer to many of the fights that American forces may be committed to in the future than bases in the United States. US Army Europe currently has two of its four brigades in Afghanistan—the 170th Infantry Brigade in Mazar-i-Sharif and the 172nd Infantry Brigade in Paktika, one of the most violent provinces in the country. . . .

The third is that the new strategy places great emphasis on military-to-military co-operation with other countries. The best way of enhancing that is for American soldiers to train with their counterparts from other nations. General Hertling says that after training, the command’s second priority is to enter into effective partnerships with the many different countries in its region. “By sharing ideas, tactics and procedures,” he says, “you build trust with partners.” During the final readiness exercise before deployment to Afghanistan, the 172nd trained with troops from nine other countries, the same ones, notes the general, whom they would later find themselves fighting alongside. . . .

While the feeble defence effort of too many NATO members riles Americans, the organisation remains the only vehicle that reliably provides partners when America wants to do something and does not want to do it on its own. Mr Obama’s strategic guidance risks talking up the importance of partners while undermining the effectiveness of the command that does more than any other to make those partnerships work in America’s interest. (photo: Economist)

Georgia releases new National Security Concept, but no mention of Western European nations

Jorge Benitez — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 11:44:07 -0600

From Joshua Kucera, the Bug Pit: Georgia has released its new "National Security Concept" document, updating it from the 2005 version which said there was “little possibility of open military aggression against Georgia." Now, unsurprisingly, Russia dominates the document: of the twelve "Threats, Risks and Challenges to the National Security of Georgia" it identifies, ten are tied to Russia and its role in the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. . . .

[F]or whatever reason [the document] doesn't mention Western Europe at all (though of course the EU and NATO as organizations are prominently featured). There is a whole paragraph on Latin America and the Caribbean, but no mention of France, Germany, the UK? No doubt the Western European reluctance to admit Georgia into NATO is the major factor there. (photo: AP)

Georgia soon to surpass Australia as largest non-NATO troop contributor in Afghanistan

Jorge Benitez — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 11:45:21 -0600

From Civil Georgia: The Parliament approved on Tuesday President Saakashvili’s request to send one additional infantry battalion to Afghanistan on top of 936 Georgian soldiers who already serve as part of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

As a result, after sending one more battalion – that is 749 soldiers – Georgia will become the largest non-NATO contributor to ISAF with total of 1,685 troops. Currently Australia is the largest non-NATO contributor to the Afghan operation with 1,550 soldiers on the ground.

Georgia, whose troops operate without caveats, has lost total of ten soldiers in Afghanistan – all in the Helmand province. (photo: ISAF)

Russia says Georgia's entry to NATO could lead to war

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 17:43:07 -0600

From RIA Novosti: Russia’s foreign minister has warned of a repetition of its 2008 war with Georgia if the South Caucasus state joins NATO.

Speaking at a news conference after the NATO-Russia Council in Brussels on Thursday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he had warned NATO foreign ministers against “pushing the current Georgian regime towards a repetition of their August 2008 gamble.”

From Civil Georgia: Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, criticized NATO foreign ministers for naming Georgia in their joint communiqué among the “aspirant” countries.

The final statement of NATO foreign ministerial meeting, held in Brussels on December 7, reads: “We applaud the significant operational support provided to NATO by our aspirant partners the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Georgia.”

Speaking at a news conference in Brussels after the NATO-Russia Council on December 8, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that he had “openly warned” his counterparts from the Alliance that such statements might serve as an encouragement for President Saakashvili to undertake “an adventure similar to the one of August, 2008.”

“I noticed that yesterday’s communiqué, which was adopted by the NATO foreign ministers, contains a term ‘aspirant countries’ and among them was named Georgia too. I openly warned our colleagues not to again push, wittingly or unwittingly, the current regime in Georgia towards repeating an adventure similar to the one of August, 2008… it was shortly after the [April, 2008 NATO] Bucharest summit, during which [NATO] imperatively stated, that Georgia will join NATO,” Lavrov said.

“I have not the slightest doubt, taking into account Saakashvili’s psyche, that it [NATO Bucharest summit decision] played an important role in insane and reckless decision which Saakashvili took. So I expressed hope that the NATO will take a responsible approach towards encouraging such events that took place in 2008 in the region, which is strategic not only for the South Caucasus states, but for the Russian Federation too – our close allies and neighbors are living there. I hope I’ve been heard [by NATO],” the Russian Foreign Minister added. (photo: Reuters)