Atlantic Council

Ukraine is seeking to repair relations with Russia as its hopes of entering NATO fade, the Times reports:

"The reappraisal comes amid debate in Kiev about the wisdom of antagonizing the Kremlin, particularly after the confrontation between Russia and Georgia in the summer.

President Yushchenko of Ukraine has ordered a policy review in an effort to defuse tensions with Russia over his country’s pro-Western leanings.  The shift is an acknowledgement that friction between Kiev and Moscow has made it harder for the European Union and NATO, particularly members such as Germany and France, to embrace Ukraine."

The news comes as NATO foreign ministers meet for a two-day summit in Brussels where the U.S. has backed off plans to push for Georgian and Ukrainian Membership Action Plans (MAPs) into the alliance.  The policy review marks a major change from Yushchenko's earlier stance:

"It is a remarkable change of tone for Mr. Yushchenko, who has raised fears about Russian aggression in Crimea.  He had also accused Yulia Tymoshenko, his rival and Orange Revolution ally, of 'high treason' for failing to condemn the Russian intervention in South Ossetia and Georgia in August."

At the same time, the Independent notes that Saakashvili is pressing NATO not to abandon its promise of membership to Georgia (and Ukraine) at the Bucharest summit last April:

"The Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, has urged NATO members to bury their differences and agree to a 'compromise' that would accelerate his country's membership of the Western military alliance, despite the fallout from Georgia's six-day war with Russia.

[...]

'Membership is the goal,' President Saakashvili said during a teleconference call from Tbilisi.  'How to get there is secondary.'  The Georgian leader believes that the diplomatic fudge at the NATO summit emboldened Moscow to retaliate with crushing force by invading Georgia proper when the Georgian military launched an offensive against the breakaway territory of South Ossetia last August."

Mission accomplished for Russia?

Accusations that Ukraine improperly sold arms to Georgia during its August war with Russia continue to plague the Ukrainian political system.  NYT:

"It may not matter that the [pro-Russian] opposition has provided no conclusive evidence of the claims, despite weeks of pronouncements that the evidence — once released — will be explosive.  The claims alone, which have made headlines, have nonetheless helped to further undermine the government’s authority at a time of heightened political instability, while also roiling Ukraine’s already tense relationship with neighboring Russia.

At issue are accusations that the government of President Viktor A. Yushchenko, who supported Georgia during the crisis, covertly supplied it with weapons before and soon after the fighting broke out in August, and sold tanks and an antiaircraft system to the Georgians at reduced prices.

A parliamentary commission set up by Ukraine’s opposition parties has been investigating the claims, which also include allegations that the president decommissioned equipment sorely needed by Ukraine’s military and gave it to Georgia."

Yushchenko denies wrongdoing, noting that Ukraine has the right to sell arms to any country not under international sanctions, including Georgia.  So what's the problem?

"The opposition lawmakers say the point is not whether Ukraine had a right to sell weapons to Georgia. They say the government secretly sent the arms, bypassing disclosure rules in order to avoid antagonizing Russia.  They also say that some of the proceeds of the sales have gone not to the Treasury, but to people in Mr. Yushchenko’s circle, even as Ukraine’s military is in dire need of funding."

Similar accusations have been leveled at Yushchenko for months from Moscow.  Putin even described the alleged weapons sales as a "crime against the Russian and Ukrainian people" at a meeting with Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko in early October.  Surely the fact that the main opposition party, the Party of Regions, is broadly pro-Russian will not influence the evidence in parliament's report...

For his part, Yushchenko has vowed to continue Ukraine's arms sales to Georgia.

Related Posts:

• Russia Claims Evidence of U.S. and NATO "Mercenaries" in Georgia
• Russia Agrees to Ukraine Gas Prices, Criticizes Kiev's Support for Georgia

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice will meet with NATO ministers to discuss controversial plans for proposed Ukrainian and Georgian membership of the alliance. Financial Times:

The US wants to defuse tensions with other Nato members on when Georgia and Ukraine will join the alliance by focusing on internal political and security reforms both countries must accomplish before they can join.

As she prepares for a two-day meeting of Nato foreign ministers tomorrow, Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, has said Washington will not press for the two former Soviet republics to gain immediate entry to the alliance's Membership Application Plan (Map).

Nato members agreed at a Bucharest summit this year that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members. But Germany, France and other states made clear the immediate offer of Map - a key stage in the Nato application process - would be seen by Russia as provocative.

Last week Britain had suggested finding other ways to bring the two countries into the alliance, and the U.S. seemed to back away from plans for full membership. The meeting will also focus on a new security architecture for Europe proposed by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

According to RFE/RL, the U.S. dropped plans to push for Georgian and Ukrainian NATO membership at an alliance meeting scheduled in December:

"U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on November 26 pulled back from offering Georgia and Ukraine a formal roadmap to join NATO and said Britain had proposed finding other ways to bring them into the alliance."

Speaking from Havana after a meeting with Cuban leader Raul Castro, Medvedev welcomed the move, saying:

"I am satisfied common sense prevailed.  Whatever the reasons, European pressure or whatever else, the main thing is that they [Washington] no longer push ahead with their previous ferociousness and senselessness."

Details of the proposed alternative means for the two countries' entry into NATO remain unclear.

RFE/RL reported today that the office of Russia's Prosecutor-General claims to have evidence that U.S. and other NATO mercenaries participated in the Georgia conflict in August:

"Russia has evidence that citizens from NATO member states including the United States and Turkey fought for Georgia in the five-day August war, Russia's top investigator has said.

[...]

Asked to list the nationalities of the foreign fighters it believes were involved, Aleksandr Bastrykin, head of the Prosecutor-General's investigative committee said: 'America, the Czech Republic, Chechnya, the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Turkey.'

'It was a fairly small number of people.  They mainly fulfilled support roles,' Bastrykin told reporters in Russia's second city of St. Petersburg.  He said some had conducted training for the Georgian armed forces.  'There were also two snipers ... one from Ukraine and I believe a Latvian woman,' he said.

He said he considered the presence of foreign fighters a criminal offense and said he would bring it up at a meeting with representatives of Interpol."

Interpol will likely get right on the case...  Georgia's National Security Council secretary Kakha Lomaia replied, "The statement that almost half of the world was fighting in our army in August is just a fantasy of those in the Russian leadership...."  The Russian claims echo accusations made by Putin last month that Ukraine gave military support to Georgia during the invasion:

"[Putin criticized] Ukraine's arms deal with Georgia, its diplomatic support for Tbilisi, and its desire to join NATO.  He speculated that Ukraine may have provided military support for Georgia during its conflict with Russia, RFE/RL reported.  Putin said, 'If this is confirmed, this will be what I have called a crime, because this is termed 'direct involvement in an armed conflict,' pitting Russian and Ukrainian peoples against each other.'"

One can't help but feel this is timed to coincide with the recent controversy over shots fired near the Georgian presidential convoy as it approached the de facto border with South Ossetia.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has said in an interview with The Times that NATO should resist Russian pressure and make an historic offer of membership to Ukraine:

Viktor Yushchenko said that Ukraine was “devoted” to winning support for a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at next month’s summit of Nato foreign ministers despite opposition in Moscow and a bitter political crisis at home that has split the pro-Western Orange coalition. He gave warning that expansion of the military alliance was vital to European security in the wake of Russia’s war with Georgia, and the only way to secure Ukraine’s independence.

“I am sure that the ball is not on the Ukrainian side of the field, Ukraine has done everything it had to do,” President Yushchenko said in an interview with The Times. “We are devoted to this pace. Everything else is an issue of political will of those allies who represent Nato.”

Russia strongly opposes Nato membership for Ukraine and former President Vladimir Putin threatened to target nuclear missiles at Ukraine if it joined. The question that must be asked is what exactly would Ukraine contribute to the NATO alliance if it did join? Their economy is in trouble; their military is second-rate, and it is evident that Russia won't budge in terms of their opposition to NATO expansion. Ukraine is also deeply divided with Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko's faction favoring greater ties with Moscow.

Is Ukraine really a suitable candidate for membership? It is a harsh truth, especially for a respected statesman such as Yushchenko, but I'm afraid NATO isn't ready for Ukraine, and Ukraine isn't ready for NATO.

On Wednesday, the IMF approved Ukraine's $16.5 billion loan after weeks of negotiation. The fund will immediately disburse $4.5 billion, Reuters said.  The loan also includes changes to Ukraine's monetary and exchange rate policies aimed at curbing the impact of the global financial crisis.

Approval of the loan in Ukraine's parliament was stalled for weeks amid paralyzing political haggling that has almost become commonplace.  The inability of Ukraine's parliament to act had led to serious speculation that the economy would enter a downward spiral.  Moreover, the hryvnia hit historic lows last week.

Ukraine's parliament yesterday approved legislation that clears the way for a 16.5 billion dollar (12.8 billion euro) International Monetary Fund crisis loan, AFP reports.  The legislation creates a stabilization fund to bail out banks and other firms unable to service foreign loans, guarantees for bank deposits, and other measures insisted upon as a condition for IMF assistance.

RIA Novosti notes that IMF approved the loan, conditional on this legislation passing, last Sunday.  Ukraine has been among the countries hardest hit by the crisis, which sparked on run on their national banks, a loss of 70% of the value of its stock exchange, and a record low value for its national currency, the hryvnia, against the dollar.

Adrian Karatnycky, a senior scholar at the Atlantic Council, has published "Kiev's Crackup: Personality Politics Means a Repeat of Ukraine's Troubles," in today's Wall Street Journal.

The outline of a $16.5 billion IMF loan to Ukraine was released over the weekend, according to the Financial Times.  For IMF standards, the loan is large relative to Ukraine's economy, but the fund's board, which has yet to approve the package, will only consider the loan after Ukraine's parliament adopts emergency legislation to improve confidence in its financial system.

With concerns growing over the country's fragile banking system and the hyrvnia's steady decline against the dollar, the package includes measures to protect over 170 banks in Ukraine.  However, parliament still has not enacted legislation after over a week of debate, raising serious doubts about the country's economic outlook.

In recent weeks, the IMF has been in negotiations with several countries over rescue packages to counter the global financial crisis, including Iceland, Hungary, and Pakistan.  Iceland received a $2 billion loan on Friday, making it the first Western country to receive support from the fund since the UK in 1976.