Atlantic Council

Facing a worsening economic situation and a war in Iraq that will be difficult to end—in short, grave overstretch—the next U.S. administration will seek to return to a more multilateral foreign policy and attempt to work closely with Europe. But Europe may not be willing or able to meet American expectations to play a larger role in international security.

A Turkish ship issued distress signals in the Gulf of Aden, CNN reported.  Turkey confirmed that it has at least one warship in the area, but refused to say whether it was involved in rescue negotiations or operations.  The ship's owner has been unable to contact the crew of the vessel, which is carrying 77,000 tons of iron ore from Canada to China.

Major concerns exist over whether the ship has been hijacked by Somali pirates.  The Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that NATO, which recently launched an anti-piracy taskforce in the region, is helping with an investigation into what happened.

Russia announced that it will host Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on November 2 for talks on a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  According to RFE/RL, analysts believe that Russia intends to show its diplomatic side after its invasion of Georgia in August.

The conflict over the largely ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan is two decades old and remains one of the former Soviet Union's "frozen conflicts."  Analysts also suspect that the Kremlin may try to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus by offering Russian peacekeepers as part of any agreement.

Traditionally, Armenia has allied itself with Russia over the conflict, while Turkey has supported Azerbaijan.  However, a recent visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Armenia, the first by a Turkish head of state, sparked speculation about a normalization of diplomatic relations and a possible breakthrough on a resolution to the conflict.

On Monday, Turkey began the trial of 86 members of Deep State, an extreme rightwing nationalist and secularist group accused of plotting a coup.  The group contained members of the security forces and government bureaucracies and is said to have acted illegally to undermine the authority of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey and leader of the mildly Islamist AK Party.  The group is also opposed to Turkish membership in the EU, the Times reported.

The trial represents the first major attempt at prosecuting Deep State and comes amid debate over Turkish secularity sparked by the AK Party in recent years.

Turkey's military says five Turkish soldiers and five Kurdish rebels have been killed in clashes near the country's southeastern borders with Iraq and Iran, according to VOA. PKK rebels say they shot down a helicopter killing one Turkish soldier near the province of Hakkari. The military says the helicopter was carrying soldiers going to reinforce troops ambushed by PKK fighters where four other soldiers were killed. The military says five Kurdish rebels were killed in separate clashes near the Iraqi border.

The Turkish military has been making nearly daily air strikes along its southeastern border since an attack by PKK militants earlier this month left 17 Turkish soldiers dead. The PKK has been fighting for Kurdish autonomy in southeastern Turkey since 1984. The violence has killed at least 37,000 people.

For the sixth time in the past week, Turkish planes and artillery units launched strikes Sunday on Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) positions in Duhuk Province in northern Iraq, CNN reported.  The attacks are part of Turkey’s ongoing response to PKK attacks that killed 15 Turkish troops just over a week ago.

According to Eurasianet, Georgia appears to have closed its air corridors to supply planes that carry equipment to Russian troops stationed in Armenia.  Armenia-bound commercial planes from Russia are also being blocked from using Georgian airspace.

Although neither Russia nor Georgia has officially confirmed the ban, Russia is now reportedly flying over Iran and Azerbaijan to supply its military base in Armenia.  The shipments are supposedly erratic, as Moscow is having difficulty securing permission to use those countries' airspace on a regular basis.

Russia maintains a base with about 5,000 troops in the western Armenian town of Gyumri.  The base is located near the border with Turkey and has formed a critical component of Armenia's national security policy, allowing Armenia to focus the majority of its military power along the border with Azerbaijan by precluding the possibility of Turkish involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Turkey carried out air strikes Saturday on PKK positions inside northern Iraq. The Turkish military said the air operation was conducted on the PKK's "hiding positions" in the Avasin-Basyan area of northern Iraq near the border with Turkey. According to the PKK, or Kurdistan Workers' Party, no casualties were sustained during the raid.

The air strike was launched in response to recent clashes that left at least 15 Turkish troops dead. At least 15 Turkish soldiers were killed and 20 wounded in the clashes, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said Saturday. The military said 23 PKK members were also killed in the attacks, launched from northern Iraq.

The Iraqi government has backed Turkey over the recent clashes. A government official told CNN that, "the Iraqi government expresses its support for the measures the Turkish government will take within Turkish territory to guarantee its [Turkey's] security and stability." The Turkish government is scheduled to vote Tuesday on whether to extend the authority of the military to launch attacks on PKK positions in Iraq

Turkish President Abdullah Gull attended a soccer match in Armenia Saturday, the first ever such visit.  Upon departure, Gul told assembled journalists, "This match is important beyond being the first match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams," Gul told a news conference. "It has a significance that will present important opportunities. I hope today's match will contribute to removing barriers to the rapprochement of two peoples with a common history, and contribute to regional peace and stability," Reuters reports.

The trip went beyond soccer diplomancy.  AFP reports that Gul met with his counterpart, Serzh Sarkisian, and invited him to attend a return match in Turkey on 14 October. 

Reuters' Paul de Bendern notes that these small measures "carried huge symbolic importance for neighbours with no diplomatic ties and whose relationship is haunted by the killings of hundreds of thousands of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey during World War One." He contends the visit, "should give momentum to help mend almost a century of hostility with the Caucasus country made more urgent since Russia's war with Georgia."

Cyprus President Demetris Christofias and rival Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat are meeting to discuss a resolution to the 34-year-old division of the island territory.  BBC reports that, "Analysts say the talks have a real chance of resolving the dispute, which threatens Turkey's EU membership hopes."  These are the first formal talks between the rival factions since a 2004 agreement collapsed after it was rjected by Greek Cypriots.

Christofias told reporters, "We must, at long last, put an end to the suffering of our people and reunite our country" and Talat added that the goal was to make "a divided island a common place where two nations are living."