Atlantic Council

Yet another shooting incident has taken place on the Georgia-South Ossetia border.  AP:

Georgian and separatist South Ossetian authorities are accusing each other of opening fire across the line of control in the ex-Soviet republic. Nobody was hurt, but the accusations have added to tension following the August war that strengthened Russian and separatist control over Georgia's South Ossetia region.

The South Ossetian government said Sunday that a village came under sporadic automatic-weapons fire from Georgian-controlled territory for several hours late Saturday. It said South Ossetian forces did not return fire. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili acknowledged that Georgian forces fired shots but said they were responding to gunfire from South Ossetian-controlled territory.

What's most noteworthy here is the seemingly universal treatment of South Ossetia as a de facto separate state.

News broke over the weekend that shots were fired as a convoy carrying Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili and Polish president Lech Kaczynski approached South Ossetia.  There were no injuries, and the convoy returned safely to Tbilisi.  Predictably, Georgia is blaming Russia, and Russia is blaming Georgia.  Reports vary significantly.  RFE/RL wrote:

"A spokeswoman for Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said Russian troops manning a checkpoint in the area fired the shots.  The spokeswoman was not present at the scene.  [However,] a witness traveling with Saakashvili told Reuters that uniformed South Ossetians fired the warning shots after the convoy came within 30 meters of the de facto border."

The Independent quoted comments by Saakashvili from the BBC's World Service radio.  As usual, he didn't shy away from the dramatic:

"Frankly I didn't expect Russians to open fire.  I thought they clearly saw that this was an official cortege, this was a high delegation.  Clearly it was intended as a provocation, certainly I would never intend to put the life of the president of Poland in danger, that was none of my intention but the reality is that you know you are dealing with unpredictable people."

The incident comes as Georgia marks the fifth anniversary of the "Rose Revolution" that brought pro-Western Saakashvili to power, highlighting the country's continued instability and the increasing challenges to the president's rule.  According to the Australian, Saakashvili also said:

"Aggression continues in Georgia.  The ceasefire and the European Union-brokered agreement are being violated.

[...]

We were attacked because of the success of the last five years, it was the last challenge of the empire against us.  We have never faced such a dangerous threat.  We need strength and unity.  We must believe in the future and have courage.  Instead of celebrating... we must show unity as we did on November 23, 2003."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov got his two cents in as well:

"This is a clear provocation.  It is not the first time they are doing so.  They are organizing the provocation and then blame the Russian side.  Inviting the [Polish] president to Tbilisi and then taking him for a car ride to a different country – isn't that a provocation?  There was no shooting from either the Russian or the Ossetian side."

The EU will almost certainly not view the event as demanding a review of the Russian-Georgian ceasefire – nor is there consensus that it should.  Similarly, Kaczynski's call for further assistance to Georgia will most likely do little:

"I appeal from this spot to my friends in the European Union to draw the proper conclusions from this event before it is too late.  ...  I do not regret that trip along that dark road."

Amnesty International is to release a 76-page report today on the conflict in South Ossetia, accusing Georgia and Russia of war crimes during the short war that began on 7 August. New witness accounts have have undermined Georgia's portrayal of the war as a purely defensive operation. The Independent reports:

The Amnesty report specifically accuses Georgian forces of having committed "indiscriminate attacks" on 7 August "causing deaths and injuries among South Ossetian civilians and considerable damage to civilian objects". It says: "Serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law were committed by all sides."

Ryan Grist, the head of the international monitoring group during the conflict, told The Independent that when the war started the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali "did still contain women and children" who should have been protected from the conflict which had built up over months.

Meanwhile, Georgian envoy, Temuri Yakobashvili, was dispatched to London in order to bolster Georgia's case in face of waning public opinion in Britain and the U.S. He told the Independent that while Georgia had cooperated with Amnesty, his government would demand to see "proof" before commenting on the war crimes allegations:

He strongly denied that Georgian credibility had been undermined by the commander of Georgian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, who publicly stated that the order to attack Tskhinvali had been given to "restore constitutional order". The officer, Mamuka Kurash-vili, has been fired, although Mr Yakobashvili said his sacking was a separate matter. "The President never said anything like 'Liberate South Ossetia, restore territorial integrity'," Mr Yakobashvili said.

The Amnesty report does recognize the complexities of the conflict, however:

Amnesty suggests "there was deliberate misinformation and exaggerated reports during the conflict, and particularly in its early stages". Russia, for example, accused Georgia of "genocide" on 9 August when the Kremlin said that 2,000 civilians had been killed. On 12 October, the Russians revised the death toll to 159.

Furthermore, lootings and kidnappings along Georgia's de facto border with separatist South Ossetia are stopping more than 20,000 people from returning home, according to Amnesty. The report comes ahead of an EU announcement, which sets out a plan for the first international investigation of the conflict. The Atlantic Council's own report on post-conflict Georgia can be found here:

Atlantic Council Report: Post-Conflict Georgia

The Kremlin wants the number of EU ceasefire monitors in Georgia increased, RFE/RL reports.  Under the French-brokered peace agreement, the EU presently has 225 unarmed observers and around 75 supporting staff deployed in Georgia.

However, Russia will not allow them into the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, so the purpose of further monitors within Georgia proper remains unclear.  More about the monitors (lack of) access to Georgia's conflict zones at the New Atlanticist.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has dismissed evidence obtained by the BBC that suggests Georgia committed war crimes during their attack on South Ossetia. The evidence suggests Georgia used indiscriminate force, and may have targeted civilians. Witnesses said tanks had fired on an apartment block, and civilians were shot at as they fled the fighting. The BBC recently undertook the first unrestricted visit to South Ossetia by a foreign news organization since the conflict.

British Foreign Secretary David Milliband has raised the issue with the Georgian government. "On my visit to Tbilisi of course I raised at the highest level in Georgia, the questions that have been asked and raised about war crimes and other military actions by the Georgian authorities," said Milliband. President Saakashvili replied: "We strongly deny... accusation of war crimes - but of course, we are very open for any kind of comments, we are very open for any kind of investigation."

Mr Miliband - normally a strong supporter of Georgia - told the BBC: "I think the Georgian action was reckless, I think the Russian response was disproportionate and wrong."

There has been a good deal of  talk about the Kosovo precedent in discussions about what to do next with regard to Georgia, Russia and the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Police is South Ossetia have been ordered to return fire if shot at from Georgian forces in the wake of a still cloudy incident yesterday in which no one was hurt.  Acting Interior Minister Mikhail Mindzayev issued a statement announcing the order and declaring,"We will not allow our people and our officers to be killed," AP reports.  Correspondent Steve Gutterman suggests the order "could increase the threat of new violence in the Russian-backed separatist region."

South Ossetian rebels were fired upon Saturday, with no casualties reported.  This was the first exchange of gunfire since fighting stopped in August, AFP reports.

The origin and nature of the shooting is under dispute.  Mikhail Mindzayev, the "de facto interior minister" of South Ossetia, claims "The Georgian side has fired on security force posts of the Republic of South Ossetia."   Georgian spokesman denied this, saying, "Drunk Russian soldiers were firing into the air."

It was no surprise that that international discussions on the security and stability arrangements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia broke down on October 15.

According to Deutsche Welle, peace talks between Russia and Georgia scheduled for Wednesday in Geneva will now be downgraded to several "technical meetings."

Russian officials declared that they would not go to the talks unless representatives of the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia were also permitted to attend.  Moscow recognizes the two regions as independent states.  However, Georgia said it would not allow this to happen.  Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze stated, "Representatives from Abkhazia and the so-called South Ossetia will not take part in negotiations in Geneva."

Despite strained relations with Russia, the U.S. decided it would also attend the talks, which will follow a meeting of the EU, the UN, and OSCE.