2010 will most likely define the character of the next decade for U.S. foreign policy in Central and South Asia. For Afghanistan and Pakistan, the year will foreshadow what awaits them in the new decade – fatal chaos, expensive stability (with some hope) or a blend of both.

The South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council invited contributors to offer their ideas and predictions about events in the greater South Asia region in 2010.

Black swans. Thanks to the irascible Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the world is now familiar with the term. But perhaps few places should beware of the black swan like Pakistan should, or at least those in the business of making predictions about Pakistan.

The war in Afghanistan will intensify in 2010 as NATO tries to regain the initiative from the insurgency.  Casualties will rise.  By year's end we will only begin to see whether or not Obama's strategy shows signs of reversing the momentum away from the Taliban.

The 2009 strategy towards Afghanistan will fall to be reassessed in 2010. If exasperation and domestic political expediency override hard-headed analysis and lead to a reliance on kinetic options as a presumed final alternative, the consequences in the region – and for the U.S. – will be truly bleak.

2010 will be a year of critical challenges for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Both nations need to move towards political stability, succeed against extremism and attain economic growth.

With a new year upon us, the imminent challenges faced by Afghanistan and Pakistan are becoming increasingly important. Yet a new and immensely powerful set of global trends are recreating unprecedented opportunities in this region not seen since the apex of the mighty Silk Road.

2010 will be a year of confusion, further confounded by ongoing violence, for west-south-central Asia. The region will be in flux, shifting from nowhere to nowhere, rather than in a transition for which the journey is charted and the destination known.