Atlantic Council

Russia and Venezuela have begun joint naval exercises around U.S. territorial waters in the Caribbean. It is the first time that a Russian fleet has been in the area since the end of the Cold War. BBC:

About 1,600 Russian and 700 Venezuelan sailors on four Russian ships and 12 Venezuelan vessels are expected to participate in the VenRus 2008 joint exercise in neutral waters over the next three days. The Russian ships, led by the missile cruiser Peter the Great and three support vessels, left the port of La Guaira at dawn on Monday along with three Venezuelan frigates.

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"This series of exercises aims to evaluate the skills and capabilities of the fleets of both nations to fight against terrorism and drug-trafficking," said Russian Vice-Admiral Vladimir Korolev, deputy commander of the Northern Fleet.

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Ahead of the operation, Venezuelan and Russian officials rejected suggestions that they were aimed at "third countries".

So the exercise has nothing to do with challenging the U.S. in its own backyard? If so, why choose Venezuela as a naval partner? Is there anything for the Russian fleet to learn from Venezuelan naval expertise? Surely not. Rather it seems as if Dmitri Medvedev is trying to extend his influence in Latin America, having recently completed a tour of the region. Indeed the plan was proposed at the height of the Russia-Georgia conflict and seems to be more of an affront in response to U.S. support for NATO expansion, missile defense and the recognition of Kosovo, than a meaningful strategic exercise.

However, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice dismissed the Russian move, stating: "A few Russian ships [are] not going to change the balance of power."

Russia has also pledged to sell arms to Venezuela. Correspondents say Washington has been concerned by major arms deals between Russia and Venezuela since 2005, which have totalled some $4.4bn (£2.39bn).

NATO foreign ministers will meet in Brussels today to, in the words of the April 3 NATO Bucharest Summit Statement, “make a first assessment” on Georgia’s quest for membership in the alliance.  In the aftermath of Russia’s August attack on Georgia, a Membership Action Plan (MAP) is not now politically possible.

A humorous post from Brian Whitmore at RFE/RL's Transmission blog – "Talk About War Profiteering!:"

"A new Russian computer game called 'Confrontation – Peace Enforcement,' which simulates a new war between Russia and Georgia, is due to appear in shops in December.

In the game, NATO member Poland supports an effort by Tbilisi to take back the breakaway South Ossetia region, while Ukraine blockades Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.  Russia then launches an attack on Georgia in response.

The Prague-based Bohemia Interactive Studio, meanwhile, has a new game in the works that looks at the Russia-Georgia conflict from a pro-Western perspective.  According to The Moscow Times, the game stars a group of U.S. soldiers who intervene in a conflict in 'Chernarus,' a fictional ex-Soviet republic that strongly resembles Georgia."

The true test will be in which game sells more copies...

Our previous poll, "How should the U.S. and Europe address concerns over Russia?" drew surprisingly similar responses on both sides of the Atlantic, with solid majorities in both the U.S. and abroad preferring offering more integration in exchange for cooperation and only a third preferring a significantly harder line.

Accusations that Ukraine improperly sold arms to Georgia during its August war with Russia continue to plague the Ukrainian political system.  NYT:

"It may not matter that the [pro-Russian] opposition has provided no conclusive evidence of the claims, despite weeks of pronouncements that the evidence — once released — will be explosive.  The claims alone, which have made headlines, have nonetheless helped to further undermine the government’s authority at a time of heightened political instability, while also roiling Ukraine’s already tense relationship with neighboring Russia.

At issue are accusations that the government of President Viktor A. Yushchenko, who supported Georgia during the crisis, covertly supplied it with weapons before and soon after the fighting broke out in August, and sold tanks and an antiaircraft system to the Georgians at reduced prices.

A parliamentary commission set up by Ukraine’s opposition parties has been investigating the claims, which also include allegations that the president decommissioned equipment sorely needed by Ukraine’s military and gave it to Georgia."

Yushchenko denies wrongdoing, noting that Ukraine has the right to sell arms to any country not under international sanctions, including Georgia.  So what's the problem?

"The opposition lawmakers say the point is not whether Ukraine had a right to sell weapons to Georgia. They say the government secretly sent the arms, bypassing disclosure rules in order to avoid antagonizing Russia.  They also say that some of the proceeds of the sales have gone not to the Treasury, but to people in Mr. Yushchenko’s circle, even as Ukraine’s military is in dire need of funding."

Similar accusations have been leveled at Yushchenko for months from Moscow.  Putin even described the alleged weapons sales as a "crime against the Russian and Ukrainian people" at a meeting with Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko in early October.  Surely the fact that the main opposition party, the Party of Regions, is broadly pro-Russian will not influence the evidence in parliament's report...

For his part, Yushchenko has vowed to continue Ukraine's arms sales to Georgia.

Related Posts:

• Russia Claims Evidence of U.S. and NATO "Mercenaries" in Georgia
• Russia Agrees to Ukraine Gas Prices, Criticizes Kiev's Support for Georgia

The mayor of Vladikavkaz, the capital of the Russian republic of North Ossetia, was assassinated Wednesday, RFE/RL reported:

"Vitaly Karayev, mayor of Vladikavkaz, was shot as he left his home and climbed into his silver Mercedes car. A single bullet hole could be seen in the vehicle's rear passenger window, Reuters reporters said at the scene.

Vladikavkaz is capital of the North Ossetia region, which along with the nearby regions of Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan is the scene of frequent bombings and ambushes by rebel gunmen, some of them linked to militant Islam."

The murder follows a suspected suicide bomb attack in the city two weeks ago that killed twelve people at a market.  Additionally, six women were found shot to death in Chechnya, which has seen flare-ups of violence in recent months.  Earlier in the week, three police officers and a civilian were killed by a bomb planted in an apartment building; the police officers had been responding to reports of gunfire.

The incidents also follow increasing violence in Ingushetia, where the potential for civil war remains high.  Including the Georgia conflict, Russia certainly has much to worry about in its volatile southern regions.

Medvedev and Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for a summit of the emerging market BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) to take place in Russia in 2009.  Reuters reported:

"The BRIC nations, a popular acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China, have hastened moves to take a greater say in world affairs and the global economy in response to the world financial crisis emanating from the United States.

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The countries -- the world's four largest emerging markets -- met as a group for the first time at a G20 gathering of finance ministers in Sao Paulo this month and put out a joint statement calling for a greater say in world affairs and the global economy.

'BRIC is an important force in discussing global problems. We have high expectations from the BRIC summit,' Lula said. 'We, the developing countries, should not allow the crisis to harm our development. We must jointly with India, China and Russia help the world to get out of the crisis.'"

The two countries also signed agreements on military technology cooperation.  Whether China and India are on board still remains to be seen.  However, the prospect of the BRIC countries acting as a unified economic bloc seems doubtful.

Germany will be either a world power or it will not be at all. - Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, 1925. Russia can either be big and strong or it will cease to exist. - Dmitry Medvedev, speech to senior military officers, The Kremlin, September 30, 2008.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski expressed concern over the presence of what he called a "pro-Russian lobby" in the country, that is siding with Moscow over the situation in the South Caucasus. His statements come only a day after gunfire erupted close to a convoy carrying Kaczynski and the Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili near the de facto border with South Ossetia. RIA Novosti ran the story:

"I'm concerned by statements in Poland indicating the presence of what I would call a pro-Russian lobby in the country," Kaczynski told reporters in Warsaw.

The Polish parliamentary speaker had earlier questioned Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's claim that Russian troops fired shots at the Georgian and Polish presidents while they were standing next to their motorcade on the border between Georgia and its disputed province of South Ossetia on Sunday. Russia says the incident was staged by Georgia.

Speaker Bronislaw Komorowski, a former defense minister, earlier said: "In a threatening situation, the president is immediately put inside the car, and the car drives off, as the president is protected by a bodyguard. But here we saw both presidents standing and talking, and it seems one of them [Saakashvili] was laughing. This raises many questions."

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Giving his account of the incident, President Kaczynski said he had heard shots from automatic weapons, but had not rushed back into the vehicle as he had not been aware of any threat.

Kaczynski was in Georgia to take part in celebrations of the fifth anniversary of the "rose revolution" that brought Saakashvili to power. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the attack was staged by Georgia, while South Ossetia also denied that its forces were involved.

Abandoning U.S. plans for a missile defense shield in Europe will prevent a reactionary deployment of Russian Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, according to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Russian news agency ITAR-TASS reports:

If the incoming U.S. Administration gives up the plans for building antiballistic missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic, the problem of retaliatory measures on Russia's side will vanish by itself, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Monday at an international conference on humanitarian law.

"In this case, we'll be able to halt this very dangerous negative trend on the European continent," Putin said.

"The antiballistic missiles project is targeted at Russia's strategic potential, so we cannot help giving an appropriate answer to it," he said. "It's unclear who'll benefit from this, but it's clear, the world at large and Europe in particular will lose."

Putin's suggestion that Europe "will lose" if missile defense goes ahead is predicated on a belief that by deploying Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad the stategic threat to Europe will be fundamentally altered. It won't. Russian threats are unsubstantive rhetoric. The missile defense, while controversial, is not targeted at Russia despite what the Kremlin's may claim.