Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing

 

While the current of era of globalization has brought unprecedented prosperity and to many parts of the globe the possibility of simultaneous negative developments, including pervasive insecurity exacerbated by weak and failing states, a growing gap between “haves” and “have nots,” the spread of weapons of mass destruction, the potential for catastrophic terror attacks, and the challenge of integrating new rising powers, as well as the always difficult problems of randomly occurring natural disasters will continue to challenge U.S. policy makers. To meet these challenges will require a combined use of all elements of national power diplomatic, economic, informational, and in appropriate circumstances, military power. U.S. overseas bases will continue serve as both substance and symbol of U.S. global power, engagement and leadership. But the nature of overseas bases may undergo substantial changes in coming decades.

The Atlantic Council organized a study group to examine the geopolitical context that will likely frame the security environment of the next 20 to 40 years, and to identify the implications for the U.S. overseas basing network in Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing. This report, which draws on the collective knowledge and experience of leading authorities and decision makers, provides alternative ways of thinking about military bases abroad and offers insights based on the broad experiences of the distinguished military leaders, diplomats and other government officials who participated in the working group.

The working group concluded that to enhance the value of overseas bases, they may be increasingly integrated with host-nation and multinational forces and may include broader capabilities to support interagency operations, including reconstruction, stability, public health, disaster relief and other functions beyond traditional military functions. While traditional main operating bases will retain their value, we expect to see more forward operating sites and more contingency cooperative security locations, ad hoc bases and possibly some sea basing.