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Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership
The Five Futures of Cyber Conflict and Cooperation
US Lessons for the Eurozone Restoring Confidence through Transparency
Prospects and Challenges for Increasing India-Pakistan Trade
A US-EU Action Plan for Supporting Democratization: Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia
Council News
Jonathan Paris Discusses Syrian Crisis with France 24
Jonathan Paris, nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, appeared on France 24 to discuss Russia's support for the Assad regime and what it means for a possible UN resolution against Syria.
Damon Wilson US Senate Testimony: Ukraine at a Crossroads
On February 1, Atlantic Council executive vice president Damon Wilson testified at a hearing of the US Senate Committe on Foreign Relations on the topic: "Ukraine at a Crossroads: What's at Stake for the US and Europe?"
Michele Dunne on US-Egypt Relations for NPR's Morning Edition
Relations between the US and Egypt have taken a downturn since Egyptian authorities raided the offices of seventeen nongovernmental organizations in December - three of them US-funded. Michele Dunne, director of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, spoke on NPR's Morning Edition about the situation and what it means for US aid to Egypt.
FEATURED ISSUE
The South Asia Center receives guidance and support from many experts throughout the world. Our senior fellows, guest-speakers, Center patrons, and visitors contribute heavily to the Center’s mission to “wage peace,” and engage the international community in the region. The Center asked our contributors the simple, but key question, “What you do expect in 2012?”
REGISTER
South Asia in 2010: Difficult Times Could Get Worse
Bruce Riedel | January 08, 2010
The war in Afghanistan will intensify in 2010 as NATO tries to regain the initiative from the insurgency. Casualties will rise. By year's end we will only begin to see whether or not Obama's strategy shows signs of reversing the momentum away from the Taliban.
The Karzai government will face increasing political difficulties. Politics will divert the Kabul government from efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption. Hopefully, this will not interfere with the effort to rapidly build up the Afghan army and police, but it is likely that such difficulties will worsen the already problematic nature of the challenge.
Violence is likely to get worse in Pakistan as well. Two key questions will be whether the various jihadist movements congeal together and whether the army can maintain its cohesion. President Zardari will be removed from office or become a figurehead. Nawaz Sharif will be the powerbroker in the politics of 2010. The army will stay out of politics but be increasingly anxious about the country's future.
Two wild cards could destabilize everything. Another mass casualty attack in India like Mumbai 2008 could take the subcontinent to the brink of war or worse. A successful al-Qaeda attack on the U.S. would also bring enormous pressure on Pakistan to act or face unilateral American military moves.
Bruce Riedel is a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution and was the author of the review of Afghanistan and Pakistan Policy for the White House in March 2009. This essay is part of the 2010: A Watershed Year for South Asia web forum, a collection of expectations about the greater South Asia region in the coming year.
2010: A Watershed Year for South Asia
- Shoals Ahead – Shuja Nawaz
- A Pivotal Year – Jonathan Paris
- A Bleak Future – Ahmed Rashid
- Rise of the Asian Giants – Masood Aziz
- A Region in Flux – M.J. Akbar
- Black Swans – Cyril Almeida
- Difficult Times Could Get Worse – Bruce Riedel
- High Stakes – Hilary Synnott
- A Make or Break Year for Afghanistan – Jawad Joya
Photo: Reuters Pictures.
