Atlantic Council

While unpleasant economic news and the heated debate over the so-called Ground Zero mosque continue to dominate the Washington discourse, a massive human calamity 7,000 miles away appears likely to occupy an increasing amount of President Obama's energy in the weeks ahead.

About four million Pakistanis have been rendered homeless by the floods that first hit nearly three weeks ago, and more than 20 million may feel the effects of food shortages and disease.

Those numbers are cataclysmic by nearly any measure, and the White House says that it is focused on addressing the crisis in one of the most volatile and strategically important countries in the world.

"We've already given tens of millions in assistance," White House deputy spokesman Bill Burton told reporters on Thursday. "American helicopters and C-130 planes are helping in the effort. We've delivered hundreds of thousands of pounds of food and medical supplies, and we're going to continue to help as requests come in through the Pakistani government."

Still, as the First Family settles in for a 10-day vacation in Martha's Vineyard, President Obama's lack of a vocal and sustained response to the crisis has been notable, especially compared to his frequent public comments after the devastating January earthquake in Haiti.

Shuja Nawaz, Director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council, warned that the worst effects of the flooding in Pakistan are still ahead. The monsoon season remains in high gear in the wake of an already ravaged cotton crop, and it is likely to prove impossible for farmers to plant wheat along the fertile banks of the Indus River when early October comes around.

"The disaster and its effects are so colossal and over such a vast area that we still don't know the total extent of the damage, except that it will be huge when the final count is done," Nawaz said.

When the magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck Haiti, billions of dollars in aid poured in almost immediately from around the globe, and President Obama stood in front of cameras frequently to highlight the horrific scale of the crisis that had suddenly struck the United States' next-door neighbor.

By contrast, the American response to the Pakistan floods was hampered in the immediate aftermath of this most recent international disaster, in part, experts say, because of U.S. concerns about being perceived as overstepping its bounds in a volatile Islamic strategic ally where its reputation is shaky at best.

But Teresita Schaffer, Director of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says that American image-crafting should not have taken precedence at a time when Pakistani President Asif Ali Zadari was in the midst of an eyebrow-raising diplomatic jaunt across Europe, while a swath of his country the size of Florida was drowning.

"Everybody and his brother is asking whether this is going to give the U.S. a bounce in the public opinion polls, but I think you really need to be concerned about some other things," Schaffer said. "First of all, what's the response from the Pakistan government? Their response has been less than optimal."

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday to announce a boost in U.S. aid to Pakistan to the tune of more than $150 million in total.

Meanwhile, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry toured the flood-ravaged region and appeared alongside President Zadari, who is now back in his home country after his international trip. Kerry vowed that the U.S. would steer a portion of the $200 million earmarked under the Kerry-Lugar bill for flood assistance.

For its part, the White House has remained relatively quiet about what major steps it will take to address the next stage of the crisis. Experts say the administration may end up having to redirect some of a $7.5 billion economic aid package for Pakistan to urgent flood relief.

"The real issue will come in the next couple of months when food shortages start to hit," said Stephen Cohen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute. "It's clear that the Pakistani government will need a whole lot of imported food."

South Asia experts are not sounding alarm bells about either a possible takeover of the country by the Taliban or any concerns over the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. But a potential rise in public appeal for militant groups that operate in the affected Punjab Provence remains a pressing danger.

In addition to its financial assistance, the United States military has rescued thousands of Pakistani victims using helicopters and has already delivered tens of thousands of pounds of food.

But U.S. aid may be no match for what militant groups can offer on the ground. They are assumed already to be out in full force extending charity to victims, while the Pakistani government struggles to find its footing.

"It's dangerous in that it can destabilize the country if there are riots," Nawaz of the Atlantic Council said. "That's the big danger, which means there has to be an effort made to deliver more aid because if you don't, the people will come out. There are already signs of some unrest in parts of northwest Pakistan, and there will be more."

Scott Conroy covers the White House for RealClearPolitics.com. This article was published on the RealClearPolitics web site.

This article is part of the series Pakistan Floods: Hope from Tragedy. To find a series description and links to related posts, please click here.