Pakistan Nearing Collapse
James Joyner | April 23, 2009
"The move by Taliban-backed militants into the Buna district of northwestern Pakistan, closer than ever to Pakistan's capital of Islamabad, have prompted concerns both within the country and abroad that the nuclear-armed nation of 165 million is on the verge of inexorable collapse." So begins a report from TIME's Aryn Baker.
On Wednesday a local Taliban militia crossed from the Swat Valley - where a February cease-fire allowed the implementation of strict Islamic, or Shari'a, law - into the neighboring Buner district, which is just a few hours drive from Islamabad (65 miles, separated by a mountain range, as the crow flies).
Residents streaming from Buner, home to nearly a million people, told local newspapers that armed militants are patrolling the streets. Pakistani television stations aired footage of Taliban soldiers looting government offices and capturing vehicles belonging to aid organizations and development projects. The police, say residents, are nowhere to be seen. The shrine of a local Muslim saint, venerated across the country, was closed. The Taliban, which adheres to a stricter version of Islam than is practiced in most of Pakistan, hold that worship at such shrines goes against the teachings of Islam.
Meanwhile courts throughout the Malakand division, of which Swat and Buner are a part, have closed in deference to the new agreement calling for the implementation Shari'a, law. "If the Taliban continue to move at this pace they will soon be knocking at the doors of Islamabad," Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of one of the country's Islamic political parties, warned in Parliament Wednesday. Rehman said the Margalla Hills, a small mountain range north of the capital that separates it from Buner, appears to be "the only hurdle in their march toward the federal capital," The only solution, he said, was for the entire nation to accept Shari'a law in order to deprive the Taliban of their principal cause.
The fall of Buner is raising international alarm. Speaking before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Washington Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton characterized the situation was a danger to Pakistan, the U.S. and the world. "We cannot underscore the seriousness of the existential threat posed to the state of Pakistan by continuing advances, now within hours of Islamabad, that are being made by a loosely confederated group of terrorists and others who are seeking the overthrow of the Pakistani state," Clinton said. She also accused Pakistan's leaders of "basically abdicating to the Taliban and the extremists" by signing the cease-fire agreement.
Those are bold words from the chief diplomat of the world's most powerful country, especially one that is not only an ally of Pakistan but desperately needs the cooperation of its government in its fight against extremists in the region. They're months too late, however. My colleague Shuja Nuwaz, head of our South Asia Center, told al Jazeera in mid February that the agreement was "a repeat of what happened when prime minister Benazir Bhutto was in power in 1994 and a number of districts in Swat and Malakand were handed over to essentially the same group so they could impose their rather convoluted view of sharia on those districts." Prophetically, he continued, "The moment you cede space to them, the Taliban will want to extend that control and then the government will have to go through this business of sending in the military yet again to clear and hold the territory."
That's exactly what's happening. At a Council event two weeks ago, Pakistan's ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, laughed off suggestions that his country was in serious trouble, noting that its demise has been predicted time and time again. Perhaps. But, as the pseudonymous Randy Waterhouse notes, the country is in more perilous circumstances than we've seen in some time. Indeed, as his colleague Dan Nexon points out, we should be calling what's happening in Pakistan right now by its rightful name: civil war.
John Robb goes further than that: "Pakistan is on its way, if not already, a hollow state. In short, that's a government that controls the capital and has international legitimacy, but has ceded control over much its territory to non-state groups." Terming what's happening right now an "open source counter-insurgency," he observes,
These militias aren't getting support, instead the opposite is happening: the government is extending authority and legitimacy to the Taliban through promises of self rule (deals should only be made to the extent they divide the opposition). As these militias fall and the wealth of their owners is distributed (paid off to locals with a cut to the external Taliban groups making the advance), the Taliban's plausible promise of economic justice and fair sharia rules/courts gets stronger. This will attract more self-organizing groups to join the effort.
Given the rate of the advance, the Taliban may soon be in a position to cut critical services (energy, water, etc.) to key cities.
To be sure, the government is making some feeble attempts to demonstrate its existence. CSM's Issam Ahmend reports "a modest show of force aimed at containing the increasingly aggressive militants" underway today. But this sort of thing is looking like too little, too late.
Robert Oakley, who served as U.S. ambassador to Pakistan during the first Bush administration, recently told me that Pakistan's president is "incompetent and corrupt." The former, at least, appears evident. Given the country's history, one expects the military to take over governing any time now. But it's not precisely clear what will be left to govern.
James Joyner is managing editor of the Atlantic Council. AP Photo.
Comments
Why did the Government of Pakistan deploy poorly equipped para-military troops rather than the Army to combat the Taliban in Buner?
the Government of Pakistan is still thinking about revisitng the peace accord with Swat Taliban. What is the Governemnt waiting for? With Taliban just sixty miles from the Capital, without any major Army offensive agansit them, the time for thinking has passed; the Governemnt needs to act now.
http://thetrajectory.com/blogs/?p=444
When we place the taliban and militants inside pakistan as only miles away then why we forget that the Afghan territory is also not too far away which is the major source of this insurgency in pakistan and provides and continuous supply of funds, arms and personel to kill the innocent pakistanis. If we place these issues in front of the public then please put the whole story and the sides in front so that the story is acceptable to the readers. otherwise it will show only biasedness which is not acceptable to any standard.
I think it is very good you point out that and I like to know both story in public too, let's have no secret among war...
Interesting. I did read one blog post from a Pakistani yesterday. Kinda sums it up a bit. I think US has to engage the right people from Pakistan for their and our benefit. This is what I am referring to: http://pakaffairs.com/2009/04/22/we-have-a-taliban-solution-wanna-play/
"On Wednesday a local Taliban militia crossed from the Swat Valley - where a February cease-fire allowed the implementation of strict Islamic, or Shari'a, law - into the neighboring Buner district, which is just a few hours drive from Islamabad (65 miles, separated by a mountain range, as the crow flies)."
Uh, which paved highway would they be driving on again? You try to make it sound as if they're right in the neighborhood. The truth is, they might be if they were crows. But they're not, and they won't be traveling "as the crow flies", will they? Sexes up the story if you make the situation sound more dire, though, doesn't it?
The today's Taliban syndrome regarding the political security turmoil in Pakistan is what has been rightly confessed by the US secretary of State, Mrs Hillary Clinton as the logical backlash of the US policies in Afghanistan during the times the former Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan and consequently the US created the Taliban to ouster the Russians from that area.The irony today is that the US policy seems to have suffered from the worst of its paradoxes since the creators of the Taliban have now become Taliban's crucial terminators.Both for Washington and Islamabad the challenge to tackle the Taliban issue seems highly difficult but not impossible.
The strategy of prudence, diplomacy and dialogue can be slow but a meaningful policy.The real problems is that in the eye of the local public in the fata, NWFP area of Pakistan the Taliban reserve the soft corner since they have been penetrating in the socio- political psyche of the local people.Therefore, it appreciates to be unworthy for both the Pakistan Army and the Nato force to adopt a severe military action against the Taliban since it would provoke/trigger more degenerating and undermining effects to the future of Pakistan's territorial integrity.
If the United States is sincere in saving Pakistan from the present turmoil and crisis, It would have to distance itself from its presently-endorsed policy.It is hoped that Washington would realise the gravity of the situation and would review its AF-Pak policy.
There is mutual understanding between Pakistan’s ISI and Taliban. Taliban will not cross that invisible line and Pakistani army will not do it either. This is just a dog and pony show provided by Pakistani ISI to show the world (United States) that Pakistani civilian government is weak and cannot fight Taliban. So in future when Pakistani military takes over and establish military rule they’ll the reason justifies their action. In other hand Pakistani government leaders will use this little adventure by Taliban to get more funding out United States and Europe. I will not be surprise if Pakistani leaders comes on TV ask for more monetary help to fight Taliban .
What a perfect piece of "psychological warfare" this is...Prognosis for an imploding Pakistan is a way to induce public fear just like before Elections in the US the security bar was being yoyoed between all rainbow colours. what a load of Bull....Mr. Shuja Nawaz who heads the platform has a dubious past on his own. His brother Gen. Asif Nawaz's death still has mysteries around it. He holds beef against IJI, and then Muslim League's leader Nawaz Sharif, as it was in his reign and there were alligations on about his influence in Asif's death. Later, Shuja Nawaz had his links with Benazir Bhutto and ofcourse indirectly to her husband Asif Zardari. He has a very srtong bias towards PPP, as is reflected from his book "Crossed Swords".
Back to Taliban and insurgency, in an army of the size Pakistan has & i wouldnt divulge the figure, we cannot call Pakistan a "hollow" state at all. Afghanistan, is a country where there hasnt even been never been a exact census. There has been about 3-5 known insurgencies in Balochistan since 1947, including Marxisit movements, Baloch Independence etc. The fact that army is quiet should not be taken granted for. The army is all ears and knows exactly what goes on under its nose.
I am a great fan of this website and read its analysis quite often. But this article is a blatant tactic for casting -ve impression and dissuading against Pakistan as a failed state. There are failed states way worse than Pakistan like Iceland that are inundated in debt as much as 3 times their foreign reserves etc.....1971 mistakes will not be made as long as the govt and army dont act like clowns as they did in 1971 parting their ways and leaving an immense power vacum for Mukti Bhani & Indian influence. Even if the govt of Pakistan plays with fire by taking some wrong step there will be a secret card to fall back upon coz at the end, its not show down as yet....
Pakistan was created for sole purpose that muslim a minority in of sub-continent will have freedom and equal political existence to majority hindu dominated India.
Pakistan in the past and at times concerned with india as mortal threat for may reasons but the most telling one is actions of India to get invovled in Pakistan civil distress in its former eastern province convert it into cival war thanks to Pakistan own mistakes and cut half of original Pakistan in 1971, after sufferijg from this even a 10 year old child can tell if there is internal weakness who is the mortal threat to Pakistan?
Pakistan security appratus has to tackle problem internal many to their own and history making now that it is convient to forget how crucial the vehicle to defeating soviets the so called jihadist true freedom fighters now morphing into trerorist by attacking civilains are terrorizing pakistan and shenigians of India and endeavours to cause yet for second time choas, civilain unrest and division in Pakistan weakend society
Which contry is first in line from cancer spreading from Afghanistan ? Why is the world screaming for Pakistan to dot something , Who attacked Afghanistan in first place? Who is incharge of security situation there ? Who failed to contained them and actually squeeze (ehticaly realated pusthun taliban into Pakistan Tribal Area? Who is time and time again asking to stop people moving from Pakistan border to Afghan side yet unable to stop flow of people back into Pakistan? Which contry in world has faced expect Isreal 7 times larger military then its size with which wars have been fought ? Even Valiant Israel does not face a nuclear armed arch-enemy? Why has Congress not passed Reconstruction Zone Act. Why 3000 American killed warrant action while 3000 Pakistani civlians killed is treated as mere causlity of war? Why is every group bent on tarnishing Islam and to adopt there culture interpretation of Sharia Law termed Taliban? Why should any nation killed ot take action leading to killing of its thousands of civilis and their displacement in hundreds of thousands? Why has short-term military solution failed countless time again and again in history against once own people. Why action of PLA the chinse army rembered only as bad agsint it speople. What about the equyally henious crime Pakitan is about to commit on its own people some 2 million souls to get 2000 terrorist 20,000 insurgents and 20,000 miscreants? why has an army advance and sophsicated as US army failed with heavy air supprt to put an end taliban activty in areas also long off from pak afghan province?
i dont totally agree with the hypothesis of the writer. pakistan gained its independnce on the basis of ideology and nations which are built on the basis of ideology cannot collapse that easily. it is an understandable fact that pakistan is going through some really hard times but the other big reality is that this is how big nations emerge. in 1789, the world must be thinking and saying the same things about france, as paris at that time was going through a turmoil. time like these come on every nation and they make their way through and this is wat makes a nation, a great nation. history is full of countries which survived very alrming revolutions but they are still surviving and so will pakistan and lets not forget the fact that pakistan is a nuclear state.
Pakistan needs peace!
I would not be surprise if Pakistani leaders come and ask for more monetary help to fight Taliban .
Such chaos brought by the Taliban. I hope there would be an end to all the conflicts in the world so we could have peace.
A counter-terrorism expert for both the Bush and the Obama administrations, warned that Pakistan is on the brink of collapse. "Afghanistan doesn't worry me," Kilcullen said in an April 12 interview with the Sydney Morning Herald. "Pakistan does. We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now.
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The second lesson is to focus on getting the population on America’s side and making them self-defending. And then a third lesson is to make a long-term commitment. Kilcullen said that the Obama administration’s policy of reaching out to moderate elements of the Taliban also had several pitfalls.
“If the Taliban see that we’re negotiating for a stay of execution or to stave off defeat, that’s going to harden their resolve,” he warns. “I’m all for negotiating, but I think the chances of achieving a mass wave of people turning against the Taliban are somewhat lower in Afghanistan than they were in Iraq.”
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Pakistan need to fight till the last moment to get out of the present crisis.
Taliban has created worst situation in Pakistan. They have become the threat for the whole world as well. So called the Militant, Terrorists, these people were born in the USSR war by the USA.
US used Taliban as a trump card against Russia and after that US declared these people as Terrorist.
Now we need to make our country free from these kind of peoples in order to avoid the bomb blasts in the country.
Thanks for sharing the article.
I think this is only due to favoring US in the Russian war and now these people are creating problems for Pakistan
We need to come up with a plan to save Pakistan, as this is not Pakistan's individual problem it has become the global problem. MCITP
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Pakistan security appratus has to tackle problem internal many to their own and history making now that it is convient to forget how crucial the vehicle to defeating soviets the so called jihadist true freedom fighters now morphing into trerorist by attacking civilains are terrorizing pakistan and shenigians of India and endeavours to cause yet for second time choas, civilain unrest and division in Pakistan weakend society
Pakistan zindabad......
It is really hard time not only for Govt. of Pakistan but as well as for the people living there. This terrorism hurts Pakistan too much, thinking of whole one generation has been changed. I think there is a lot efforts from financial to moral required to support the Pakistani nation. Thanks
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I think when the Taliban's move from the Swat Valley into the Buner district has raised alarms both within the country and abroad carpet shampooing
Pakistan is set to become another fertile field for US invasion. The Taleban are sticking their fingers into all countries, the surprise is that they are not running out of man-power. And another thing, Sharia Law is a big hole in the wall for all humanityKampala Hotels
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Pakistanis in general feel that the US is playing a double game. There seems to be two US power structures that influence the policy of this region. One of them seems sincere in solving the problems, but the powerful one that actually calls the shots is really doing quite the opposite.
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