Melting the Russian Glacier
James Joyner | November 19, 2008
Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski, speaking at the Atlantic Council today, declared that Russia's justification for invading Georgia, that it was defending its friends abroad, is one that has been used by Russian autocrats for centuries to justify a doctrine of imperialism. Saying that we need "a doctrine for a doctrine," Sikorski declared that, "Any further attempt to redraw borders in Europe by force or by subversion will be regarded by Poland as an existential threat to our security and should entail a proportional response by the whole Atlantic community." Beyond that, "We need to make NATO's traditional security guarantees credible again."
Asked by UPI's Martin Walker to define "subversion," noting Russia's behind the scenes efforts to influence the elections in Ukraine, Sikorski glibly responded, "You've answered your own question."
Pressed by Susan Cornell of Reuters as to whether Poland supported extending NATO Article 5 guarantees to non-members like Ukraine and Georgia, the minister observed that we had declared at Bucharest that they would one day be members. Cornwell followed up, asking whether "proportional response" meant military force, Sikorski demurred, "I have to be diplomatic."
He declared that Russian territorial ambitions have been, over the last several centuries, rather like a glacier, sometimes expanding, sometimes receding, but always there. Now, he declared, in an age of global warming, it's time for the glacier to melt. Rather than being feared for its tanks, Russia should instead be admired for its great culture and scientific prowess.
Sikorski outlined several tools at Western disposal should we muster the political will to wield them. He observed that the EU has 400 million people and, with a 12 trillion Euro GDP, the world's largest economy. It would be a relatively simple matter to demand Russia comply with international norms in order to have access to that market. He noted that "The EU is a master of regulation" and declared, "If the EU can regulate Microsoft, why not Gazprom?"
On the security front, there is NATO. He believes that we have acted since the Cold War ended as if there were no Article 5 threats. "That era is at an end," he announced. While NATO has transformed itself over the last fifteen years into an expeditionary force -- with full cooperation from Poland -- it is at its cornerstone a military alliance.
Sikorski's speech, delivered with passion and mischievious charm, was stirring. His rhetoric, delivered with the skill of an Oxford debater in Oxford accented English, was persuasive. He was, after all, merely calling on the West to live up to its own declared ideals. Indeed, he quoted from Barack Obama's victory speech: "Tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyielding hope."
In reality, though, while people have ideals, countries have interests.
The West demonstrated time and again during the Cold War that its ideals had limits when faced with threats to its interests. When the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia was weak, we pushed hard to expand Western institutions, including bringing former Warsaw Pact countries into the EU and NATO. But, as we've seen in recent months, there are still limits to our will to act. When Russia invaded Georgia mere weeks after NATO had declared that Georgia and Ukraine "will become members of NATO," the action was met mostly by words. There's simply no appetite in America, much less "Old Europe," to go to war over the Near Abroad. And even EU trade sanctions have been stymied by the complex interrelationship between Member nations, most notably Germany, with Russia and its natural gas resources.
It's not at all clear why any of these fundamental calculations will change when Barack Obama takes office two months from tomorrow. To be sure, he ran on a plaform of "Hope" and "Change," two things desperately needed for Sikorski's doctrine to come to fruition. He may need more than that, though.
James Joyner is managing editor of the Atlantic Council.
Comments
To be perfectly honest - why exactly are we willing to potentially go to war over Poland again?
I understand why the Poles are nervous; being under the Russians' thumb for two centuries will do that. Nonetheless, Russia is not the Soviet Union - they aren't going to come rolling over the East European plain towards Berlin one fine sunday morning. It's about time the Europeans actually reconciled with Russia, and drew it into a security arrangement.
To that end, I'd dissolve NATO in exchange for some concessions from Russia (while re-negotiating a new security treaty with Russia in it), and give them good access to the EU market. Like-
A)full liberalization in treaty to develop space-, sea-, and ground- ABM systems on our respective continents;
B)The right to develop a European ABM system, provided it ultimately is under the exclusive control of either a pan-European military force (like what has been proposed), or under the control of the respective countries (or you could sell them the technology and lend them the money. It's not new stuff; Russia has had an ABM system around Moscow for decades);
C)Co-operation on an Iranian arms and nuclear embargo if the Iranians don't come to the table after an offer of negotiation and re-establishment of diplomatic contact;
D)Other things.
You'd have to work out some security arrangement so the Poles and Eastern Europeans don't freak out, but I think it could be done.
Russia is collapsing. Its population is imploding and its economy is in distress with the fall in the price of oil lately. It's almost bound to oscillate between irrational exuberance and Slavic gloom right along with the price of oil.
They've got to do something. Right now the “something” looks to me as though they're following Dwight Eisenhower's advice: if a problem is insoluble, enlarge it.
Additionally, as Sikorski noted, autocrats tend to use foreign adventures to distract from domestic misery.
to Brett...
By what you wrote it's obvious you have no idea about Russia, its policy, history, russian mentality etc. Your suggestions are based on utopian beliefes... We in Poland are more afraid of people like you in West than Russia..
It looks like you need more evidences of russian aggresive policy than just the example of Georgia...
and restrain yourself from saying about "going on war over Poland again"... cause there was no such a fact in history... you probably meant that empty declarations of politicians in 1939.. it's ridiculuous...
I'm looking at this from the US position with regards to National Security, which is not necessarily the same thing as Poland's national security. That said, do you have any proof that the Russians are going to come rolling over Poland should the NATO guarantee change?
It's you - not me - who said, that Russians are going to come rolling over Poland... We are not afraid of being attacked by Russia.. at least not in couple of years (none can exclude such possibility..)
we are now afraid about Ukraine, Baltic countries, cause if they are under russian domination - we are next.. that will destroy the balance in Europe and internationl security.
Your point of view is very short-sighted - the same as Roosevelt's in 1940's
you may not trust me.. I don't care... although accidentally I've studied International Relations in Poland and in Finland -and my specialization is Russia.
I only hope your politicians are smarter...
They want Sevastopol, but that's no surprise; it's historical stupidity on Kruschev's part that that's even in Ukrainian territory.
As for the Baltics - have they actually done anything lately other than that nasty cyberattack and the whole war memorial brouhaha? It's not like they're lacking for Baltic Sea ports; they have Kaliningrad.
If you think, that Russians want only Sevastopol you are wrong.. They consider Ukraine almost as the part of their country.. (in middleages exactly here Russia starts to create). So in mentality of average Russian - Ukraine is almost Russia... But the real problem is a huge russian minority, that stayed after Soviet Union collapsed. They live in the eastern part of the country - the wealthiest part with coal mines and industry - gathering capital and power in their hands.. and - what is crucial - strong support of the russian government.
Similar situation is in the Baltic States: problem of big russian minorities - remnants of the Soviet Union. If you followed the situation during war in Georgia 3 months ago, you probably have heard Putin and Medvedev keep saying, that Russia has a right to protect its citizens, whenever they are... (which was an official reason why they attacked small Georgia...) The peacefull reaction of the rest of the world especially scandalous behaviour of the french president, that agrees with that sentence, creates an exceptional case - if they can do it once, they could freely do once more... and this is really danger...
I've learned russian language and often watch russian tv. you can't imagine the degree of propaganda, that russian government serves to its citizens.. nothing have changed from soviet times...
And the last thing.. your argument, that Russians don't need Baltic States cause they have Kaliningrad is just more, than naive... according to your philosophy, answer me why then they occupied half of the Europe if Russia has the biggest territory in the world??? or why they won't give independence to the little... microscopic Chechnya???
PS: and as for Kaliningrad... look on the map.. Russia has no land connection to this part...
Yet they somehow seem to have an active naval base in Kaliningrad . . .
As for Eastern Europe, they occupied half of it because they wanted a buffer zone, and because they were already there, so to speak (in the form of Soviet-propped up governments). There's no natural defenses for european Russia (the area to the Ural Mountains) once you get into Eastern Europe.
As for the eastern Ukrainians (and it's more than just the ethnic Russians in that area who support Russia), that's Ukraine's problem. It's not our problem that the President of the Ukraine decided he wanted to push for NATO even though half of his country disagreed. Of course, if we're going to go for "every modern state keeps every sliver of territory it has had no matter what", then the Serbs get Kosovo back.
thx
Great comment! Maria
ok. so you suggest that compulsory incorporation of Baltic States, Belarus, Ukraine etc. to the Soviet Union is a "buffer zone",
and to your information: Soviets introduced communism in Poland, using force, torturing and killing people... as well as in other countries like Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Finland..
It's sick what you write about natural borders.. By what you have written, I guess it excuses russian aggresive policy.. Do you think any european country wants to attack Russia??? We, I mean central Europe, wants them to leave us alone... Is it really so hard to understand that???? This is major goal of our policy... And suggesting, that poor Russia just wanted to feel safe is ridiculous... Are they teaching such things in american schools????
Finally egoism of such people like you astonish us.. Your country did nothing for us (refering to your first sentence "why exactly are we willing to potentially go to war over Poland again?" which is quite funny), and we are with you in Afganistan and Iraq... although we could say - as you keep saying - this is not our business...
You were the one who brought up the idea that the Russians would creep back into the Baltic States if the US pulled back on NATO, or changed it. I merely responded by pointing out that the Russians were already there the last time they used Eastern Europe as a buffer region (notice how I did not speak approvingly of it?), and the conditions aren't the same. Hell, the Russians probably couldn't even hold onto the Baltic States even if they wanted to short of nuclear blackmail, and since they already control a port in Kaliningrad (and managed to run a major naval base there in spite of the lack of ground rail access), I don't think that's going to happen.
While people have ideals, countries have interests. To be sure, Obama ran on a plaform of "Hope" and "Change," two things desperately needed for Sikorski's doctrine to come to fruition. He may need more than that, though.
I have no grudge against Russia. Never met the man. I did not blame the Russian system for anything, just relayed a series of facts.
wedew...thx bro.......
After Georgia came out of its civil war, there were three provinces that had declared Independence and were backed by Russia. Russia gave the residents of these provinces Russian passports, the local governments military aid, etc
a few years ago Georgia reincorporated one of them.
There was no justification for continued Russian military action in Georgia, which threatens the stability of the entire region and risks a humanitarian catastrophe. President Bush warned Mr Putin of his 'grave concern' about the 'disproportionate' military intervention at a face-to-face meeting in Beijing, for example
Russia appeared to be totally defying the U.S. warning today, with Georgia claiming up to 50 Russian jets were roaming its skies ready to strike. Putin and Dimitry Medvedev, attended a summit with senior generals at the Kremlin today for a council of war. President Medvedev announced later that its military operations in South Ossetia were nearing conclusion.
Give please. He attacked everything in life with a mix of extrordinary genius and naive incompetence, and it was often difficult to tell which was which.
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Additionally, as Sikorski noted, autocrats tend to use foreign adventures to distract from domestic misery.
There were three provinces that had declared Independence and were backed by Russia.
Going on war over Poland again"... cause there was no such a fact in history.
But those who take that pessimistic view understand neither The Russian way nor its current rung on the ladder to total power.
You'd have to work out some security arrangement so the Poles and Eastern Europeans don't freak out, but I think it could be done
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and yesterday I read that Europe has somehow found out that Georgia is the aggressor and that right there will be consequences...
It was also used by a short german with a 'tache in the 1930's
Now the Sunday papers are saying that the Russian government might have had something to do with the hack at the climate change research centre.
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oh man, the Russians are always involved in some shit ^^
We should care this !
In reality, though, while people have ideals, countries have interests.
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Russia is in trouble. Its people are imploding and their financial system is in misery with the drop in the price of oil recently.
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