Atlantic Council

We may soon have an answer to Henry Kissinger’s infamous question: “Who do I call when I want to call Europe?”  And, depending on how things go, it could become a very familiar phone number.

Last Friday, the Irish overwhelmingly voted in favor of the Lisbon Reform Treaty.  This treaty will, once it is signed by Poland’s president Lech Kaczynski and dithering eurosceptic Czech president Vaclav Klaus, create a unified European foreign policy apparatus.

All the drama since Friday has revolved around the fear that Klaus would delay ratification long enough for David Cameron to win next summer’s British elections and tear the treaty to shreds.  Things looked up on Wednesday, when the Czech Republic’s Europe Minister, Stefan Füle, told the BBC what many Europhiles had feared they would never hear: the Czech ratification would come, and in “weeks rather than months.”  On Thursday, though, Klaus riposted by making a vague demand that a short footnote be added to the treaty concerning the charter of fundamental rights.

Yet this is largely seen as a last-ditch effort on behalf of the Czech president to save face.  “Klaus has no mandate under the Czech constitution to negotiate the treaty.  It would be up to Prime Minister Jan Fischer to make the request,” according to one diplomat.  Klaus, having made his point, will no doubt soon fold – especially once Kaczynski signs, as he is expected to on Saturday.

And what does this mean?  Quite simply put, it means that the European Union – comprised of 27 member states and 500 million people speaking 23 (official) languages – will soon need a president.

So far there is only one candidate whose government has gone public with its support, and that is former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.  British Foreign Secretary David Miliband stated this week that Blair would be an "excellent choice,” thus catapulting Tony into the center of Europe’s first ever presidential debate.  The word from Blair’s office has so far been punctilious – Blair cannot be a candidate “for a job that doesn't exist yet.”

This hasn’t stopped the Italians from piling into Blair Force One.  On Tuesday, Franco Frattini, Italy’s foreign minister, said “We have expressed our appreciation for Tony Blair, knowing however that there is a bloc of countries with concerns about him.  We appreciate him as a person.  We realize these limits.  We do not deny them.”  The Irish are in tow as well, with Ireland’s Taoiseach Brian Cowen saying that he would be “very supportive” if Blair’s name were officially put forward.

But is Blair a sensible choice?  British conservatives don’t think so, nor does the British public, according to a recent poll published by The Times.  London’s infamous mayor Boris Johnson (who opposes the treaty) lampooned the prospect in a recent op-ed in the Daily Telegraph.

Get me Europe on the line, says Barack Obama or Vladimir Putin – and instantly the phone will trill in Connaught Square, and Cherie will pick it up.  "Barack! How lovely to hear you. I expect you want the President," she will say.  "Darling!" she will call upstairs to where her husband is in the bath, meditating on a vast new speech on solving the problems of the Middle East with a programme of inter-faith school sport.  "It's Barack on the hotline!  He wants to know whether Europe will support fresh sanctions against Iran!"  And President Blair will absently push aside his rubber duck, and shout back that Europe will ring America back as soon as Europe has finished in the bathroom.

Europe’s smaller countries also seem to be lining up against the man the German media is already calling “Der Euro-Kaiser.”  The Benelux “Stop Tony Blair” campaign began on Tuesday in earnest.  Jamie Smyth from the Irish Times described the scene in Brussels:

Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg circulated a paper to EU states yesterday that insists on the need to “guarantee the maintenance of the community method and the institutional balance of the union that have been the basis of the success of European integration” under the Lisbon Treaty.

The “community method” refers to the normal working method of the union, which involves the European Commission, European Parliament and the Council of Ministers.  There is a fear that a powerful president of the Council could undermine the Commission and boost the power of big member states.

EU ambassadors began detailed talks yesterday to draw up the rules of procedure that will define the role and responsibility of the new president of the European Council, a more powerful high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, and the new European external action service.

Big member states such as France and Italy want a powerful president of the European Council to help establish the EU as a major world power.  But smaller states such as Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg would prefer a lower profile president, acting as a Council chairman.

The EU must therefore come to terms with precisely what role it wants to play on the world stage.  As melodramatic as it seems, the reality is that the role of president of the EU has not yet been clearly defined, and as a result the candidate the EU chooses will truly be Europe’s George Washington.  Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker (himself a potential presidential candidate) complained recently to the Financial Times Deutschland that there was “an informal understanding that the first EU president wouldn’t come from one of the bigger countries.”

Yet whether the leader of a small country could successfully fill such enormous shoes is hard to imagine.  In any case, the current turmoil over whether the presidency should reassert Europe’s dwindling gravitas or simply, to again quote Boris Johnson, go “to some relatively inoffensive Luxembourg socialist or superannuated Finnish environment minister” has Eurocrats scheming and horse-trading like never before.

As for the U.S. perspective, the question has to be: Why not Blair?  True, he does still carry baggage from 2003, come from one of the most eurosceptic EU countries and continue to produce little as Middle East envoy for the Quartet (United States, European Union, Russia and the United Nations) on the Middle East peace process.  However, he is also a tested Atlanticist who more than dazzles when compared with the other potential candidates.  These range from the aforementioned Jean-Claude Juncker to Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel’s suspected favorites: the aged former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez (who doesn’t speak English), and Jan Peter Balkenende, the current Dutch Prime Minister (practically an unknown outside of the Netherlands).

The final decision could come as soon as December, and spectators on both sides of the ocean will watch the campaign in Brussels with great interest.  Will Angie and Nicolas allow themselves to be upstaged by the man with the Cheshire Cat smile?  Will the fears of the Benelux countries be allayed, or will they insist on placing an insipid bureaucrat at Europe’s helm?

For U.S. observers the question will be: Can Europe come up with a president who can stand shoulder to shoulder with Barack Obama on the world stage?  Geopolitical and economic power is galloping east, and as the new world order emerges, the U.S. and Europe will increasingly depend on their transatlantic relationship.  This means that a lightweight in Brussels is certainly not in the American interest.  Boris Johnson would perhaps prefer a “Finish environment minister” to lead the EU into disintegration, but wouldn’t Obama rather have a Euro-Kaiser on his side when dealing with Russia, Iran and China?

Nicholas Siegel is an assistant director of the Transatlantic Relations Program and research assistant to the president at the Atlanitc Council.  Photo credit: Getty Images.