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What's Georgia Going To Get At The NATO Summit?

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:48:08 -0600

From Joshua Kucera, the EurasiaNet: Georgia's prospects in NATO, after being more or less left for dead in the wake of the 2008 war with Russia, have lately appeared to be improving. NATO has recently changed its rhetoric on Georgia, for the first time calling it an "aspirant" along with several Balkan countries. And U.S. officials have said Georgia is making "significant progress" that should be recognized at the next NATO summit, in Chicago in May.

So what does this mean? Does Georgia have a shot at NATO membership after all? As a story on EurasiaNet's main page today explains, not really: President Obama, after his meeting with his Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili, used the word "ultimately" to describe Georgia's entrance into NATO, which suggests he doesn't see it happening any time soon. And even if the White House were to again back Georgian NATO membership as strongly as the Bush administration did pre-August 2008, there would still be the matter of the big Western European countries who oppose Georgia's membership. So what to do?

The defense official quoted in the EurasiaNet piece had more thoughts on this (though there wasn't room in that piece). A Membership Action Plan, the holy grail for Georgia, is not a possibility. That subject won't even be discussed at the summit: remember, this will be in May of an election year. "It's about U.S. internal politics, so this summit needs to look good. We don't need a food fight like in '08, between us and the Germans, or the pro-Georgia camp vs. the camp that's not too keen on Georgia. We don't need that. So the whole Georgia issue isn't going to be raised," the official said. . . .

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, speaking to Russian journalists has weighed in on even this slight warming of ties between Tbilisi and Washington . . .

Medvedev made the remarks after one of the participants of the meeting told him with regret, that although after the August, 2008 war Russia managed to secure international “informal arms embargo” against Georgia, situation was now changing with Georgia “restarting to buy arms from around the world”; this participant of the meeting also said that there were speculations about a trade-off – Russia turning a blind eye on Georgia’s rearmament and in exchange securing Tbilisi’s go-ahead for Russia’s WTO accession.

Makes you wonder, though, what's being said behind closed doors. (photo: AP)

Yanukovych to meet with NATO Secretary General at Chicago summit in May

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:20:22 -0600

From Interfax-Ukraine: Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is to meet with NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at NATO's Chicago summit in May 2012, reads the Ukrainian president's letter of congratulations to Rasmussen on his birthday, which has been published by the president's press service.

"I strongly believe that the constructive partnership between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will develop in future based on trust and mutual understanding. I hope that I will have the opportunity to meet with you in May this year during NATO's summit in Chicago to discuss important cooperation issues," reads the letter. . . .

As reported, earlier the head of the presidential administration, Serhiy Liovochkin, reported that Yanukovych had been invited to attend NATO's summit in Chicago in May 2012. (photo: Getty)

Congressman seeks deeper reduction of US forces in Europe

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:19:32 -0600

From Mike Coffman, Office of Congressman Mike Coffman: The place to begin is by making fundamental changes in the way we have based forces in Europe since the end of World War II.

I appreciate the challenges that the Department of Defense is facing, but I don’t believe they are being bold enough when considering what is necessary. The current proposal to remove two brigades from Europe and being a rotational deployment schedule of one combat brigade is only a step in the right direction. We must reduce our European footprint further and retain only the headquarters and support infrastructure necessary to support our expeditionary. There is no longer a strategic reason to maintain the heavy permanent forces in Germany that are a relic of the Cold War.

The Congressional Budget Office calculated in May of 2004 that removing 95% of forces in Germany alone could save one billion dollars annually. In addition, many of the upfront costs associated with that plan are no longer as severe as we reduce the overall size of our Army, and there are more savings to be had by transferring the bulk of this capacity to the Guard and Reserve components.

Our European allies are facing a fiscal crisis of their own. However, instead of being forced to find the same balance that the United States is trying to achieve, they are able to drastically reduce their national defense infrastructure because they can take for granted that the United States will continue to be the guarantor of their safety. Since 2008 the defense spending among European NATO countries fell 12%, from $314 billion to $275 billion. To continue this trend threatens to eliminate our allies’ capacity to contribute to the alliance. While I value our strategic partnerships and NATO commitments I believe it is time to clearly signal to them that their current path is no longer sustainable.

Currently only 4 out of our 28 NATO allies are spending even 2% of their GDP on defense. The new Strategic Guidance issued by the President and Secretary of Defense makes it clear that we will continue to “maintain NATO Article 5 commitments and ensure interoperability with allied forces by allocating a U.S.-based brigade to the NATO Response Force and by rotating U.S.-based units to Europe for training and exercises.” Nothing in this strategy demands that we maintain any standing force in Europe. . . .

We must continue to pressure our allies to become more sufficient for their national defense so that we can take on the more arduous task of power projection. Removing our standing European army and replacing it with an infrastructure to facilitate expeditionary operations is the first step.

Excerpts from letter by Congressman Mike Coffman (CO-6), member of the House Armed Services Committee, to Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. (via Morning Defense)

From Charles Hoskinson, Morning Defense: Some lawmakers also have tied DOD’s request for a new BRAC round to the issue of forces in Europe, saying bases abroad should be closed before those at home. (photo: americaspace.org)

NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission Becomes Permanent

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:59:35 -0600

From Ott Tammik, Estonian Public Broadcasting: NATO has decided to make permanent its Baltic air policing mission, in which larger member states patrol the region with their fighter jets on a rota basis.

Media reported earlier today that the air policing mission was extended to 2018, but upon inquiry, the Defense Ministry said the new agreement is “essentially permanent.”

Defense Minister Mart Laar called the development a major step that means that Estonia does not have to worry about having to acquire its own fighter aircraft - an expensive and complicated endeavor. "Instead we can concentrate on developing essential initial defense capabilities that are more suited for Estonia's capacity. For the people of Estonia, this is a clear sign that NATO exists,” said Laar.

From Ott Tammik, Estonian Public Broadcasting: Ministry Dubs NATO's Baltic Fighter Mission Biggest Victory in Years

Defense Ministry officials find it hard to overstate the importance of NATO's decision on Wednesday to make the Baltic air policing mission permanent.

"I don't think it is an exaggeration to call this the biggest international victory [for Estonia] in recent years,” said the ministry's secretary general, Mikk Marran. . . .

"After several years of consultations the allies found that the existing solution is the most reasonable, and there is no point in coming together every four years and making the same decision," Marran told ETV. “The decision is the outcome of several years of intense work by Estonian politicians, officials, diplomats and military leaders." (photo: ADC Eric Sarda/French Air Force) (via @edwardlucas)

First NATO Military Delegation to visit China

Jorge Benitez — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:05:35 -0600

From NATO: A NATO military delegation, lead by LtGen. Jürgen Bornemann, Director General of the International Military Staff, will visit the People’s Republic of China from 12-16 February 2012.

This is the first time a NATO military delegation is invited by the Chinese authorities to visit their country, and follows on to an earlier visit by a Chinese military delegation to NATO Headquarters in June 2010. The team of NATO experts and military officers will exchange views with their Chinese counterparts on a variety of subjects with a view to enhancing mutual understanding and cooperation.

This visit is in keeping with NATO’s new Strategic Concept, agreed at the Lisbon Summit in November 2010, which aims to further deepen and expand partnerships with countries and organizations who share common security concerns, in the face of emerging security challenges. (photo: NATO)

Pentagon to spend $1.2 billion on three Global Hawk UAVs for NATO

Jorge Benitez — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 16:27:12 -0600

From Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg: The Pentagon proposes in its new budget to spend $1.2 billion for the first three NATO-version Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) Global Hawk drones and three additional U.S. Navy-version drones, according to an official.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization announced this month it planned to buy five of the unmanned aircraft, known as the Alliance Ground System, through 2017. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told reporters Feb. 4 without elaboration that “we have protected funding for AGS in our new budget. . . .”

The budget request will help Falls Church, Virginia-based Northrop Grumman after the Air Force announced it’s truncating purchases of its third-generation Block 30 drones. The aircraft have proven too expensive to operate and maintain, Air Force officials told reporters last month.

The Air Force has spent $3.4 billion developing and buying 18 Block 30 drones. It hasn’t disclosed whether it will put on contract an additional three drones for which Congress approved money, according to Air Force spokeswoman Jennifer Cassidy.

The Air Force program had called for buying 31 Block 30 Global Hawks. The Air Force hasn’t formally announced that it will forgo purchase of the remaining 10.

Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz told reporters Jan. 27 that the service was reviewing whether to retire the initial 18 new aircraft rather than continue flying them. (photo: Unmanned)

Ukraine's President Yanukovych sacks his Defense Minister

Jorge Benitez — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:57:13 -0600

From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has sacked Defense Minister Mykhailo Yezhel, replacing him with Dmytro Salamatin.

No reason was given for the dismissal on February 8 of Yezhel, who had served as defense minister since Yanukovych was elected two years ago.

He has recently come under fire over the slow pace of army reform and has also been accused by the opposition of corruption. (photo: RIA Novosti)

Turkish court summons spy chief over PKK talks

Jorge Benitez — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 13:51:30 -0600

From Daniel Dombey, the Financial Times: A power struggle within the Turkish government has been laid bare by a court summons for the country’s intelligence chief over government negotiations with alleged Kurdish terrorists.

In an unprecedented move, Hakan Fidan, the head of the country’s powerful MIT intelligence agency, was asked to give evidence on Thursday on government contacts with Kurdish militants – including negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers’ party, or PKK, which is classified as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and the European Union.

Although initial reports suggested Mr Fidan would not appear in court – because his intelligence work was outside its jurisdiction – the summons was widely seen as a shot across the bows of any future attempt at talks with the PKK.

“No matter what what happens with this case, this gives a very clear message to the government and the bureaucracy not to continue with the peace opening,” said Yavuz Baydar, a Turkish columnist, who suggested that nationalist Turkish state officials were seeking to prevent any resumption of a now-stalled negotiation drive.

Other commentators suggested that other groups – such as the followers of Fethullah Gulen, an influential Muslim preacher – could be behind the move.

The court request followed an internet leak last year of a tape of secret negotiations in Oslo between a team led by Mr Fidan and PKK representatives, another move widely seen as making future such contacts more difficult. (graphic: on5yirmi5)