Atlantic Council

David Phillips, an Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, published an op-ed entitled "A Firm West Can Prevent a New Cold War" in the 31 August Financial Times.

The complete text is provided below as a courtesy to the Atlantic Council audience.
 

The European Union will meet in emergency session on Monday to discuss its response to the ­Russia-Georgia conflict. The meeting was supposed to be about deploying EU observers to monitor Russia’s compliance with the ceasefire agreement negotiated by Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. But Russia’s diplomatic recognition of Abkhaz­ia and South Ossetia has created a crisis. Not only does recognition violate the agreement, which called for international mediation to resolve Georgia’s conflict with its breakaway territories. Russia’s violation of its ceasefire oblig­ations also throws into question the basis of its relations with the west.

The US and Europe must make clear to Russia that it has crossed a red line in recognising these territories. Russia cannot be allowed to abuse inter­national law by invading its neighbour and carving up Georgia’s territory. Lest Russia interpret inaction as a green light to expand its neo-imperialist agenda, the west must provide a strong, consistent and coherent response. If Russia does not fulfil its commitments in the ceasefire and rescind recognition, the US should lead efforts to suspend Russia’s participation in the Group of Eight leading industrialised nations and its applications for membership of the World Trade Organisation and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The EU can act by suspending talks with Russia on a partnership and co-operation agreement and the visa facilitation regime for Russian passport holders. Sanctions on Russian companies investing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia could be considered.

The US boycotted the Moscow Olympics when Russia invaded Afghanistan. That is the last thing Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, wants when Russia hosts the 2014 winter Olympics in Sochi (just 35km from Georgia’s border). Not only should western countries reconsider going to Sochi; with Russia making a farce of “Olympic principles”, they should also petition the International Olympic Committee to assess Russia’s suitability as a host country.

Donor countries must work to rebuild Georgia’s economy. Senator Joe Biden has taken the lead by sponsoring a $1bn (€682m, £550m) reconstruction fund. At Monday’s meeting, Europe should match the US contribution.

Georgia may be defeated but it must not be abandoned. Nato should intensify the work of its newly established Nato-Georgia Commission. The decision to extend Nato’s membership action plan to Georgia and Ukraine should not wait for the alliance’s ministerial meeting in December. The US secretary of defence and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff should visit Tbilisi to discuss security co-operation. US-Georgian relations must be about substance, not ideology.

Europe’s divisions have been compounded by a Bush administration failure to forge a coherent response. Now is the time for US leadership to galvanise multilateral institutions and its allies. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s prime minister, for example, has been interfering for Russia. Italy watered down last Thursday’s EU statement, preferring that the G8 take the lead. As the main obstacle to European consensus, Mr Berlusconi should be outed and isolated.

The US must also bolster like-minded leaders such as Mr Sarkozy, who was humiliated by Russia when he secured an agreement to get Russian forces out of Georgia. Despite assurances, Russian troops occupied central Georgia, set up checkpoints on the east-west highway and established entrenched positions all the way to Poti on the Black Sea. They also turned a blind eye to South Ossetian militias who were conducting a brutal campaign of ethnic cleansing targeting Georgian villages.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, also needs support. The debate on how to respond to Russia has put serious strains on her coalition. With Russia providing 45 per cent of Germany’s natural gas, and domestic elections next year, there is a wide gap between Ms Merkel’s tough talk and the preference for the appeasement of Russia by Germany’s Social Democrats.

The US should call Russia on to the carpet at the United Nations Security Council for scuttling last week’s resolution endorsing a ceasefire and requiring the withdrawal of Russian forces. Let Russia veto a new resolution condemning its conduct. At least nine members of the council would be for it.

Coercive diplomacy should not be used to punish Russia. Yet Russia’s leaders have pursued a wilfully confrontational course. To be sure, the west needs Russia’s co-operation in the fight against terrorism and on issues such as Iran. But it needs a real partnership. Real partners play by the rules. No greater challenge exists to transatlantic solidarity and western values than Russia’s violation of international law. A robust diplomatic response is the best way to prevent a new cold war. It would also send a reassuring signal to emerging democracies that question the west’s reliability.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and co-director of the Study Group on US-Russia and Georgia Relations at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute