Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council expert David Phillips published a column entitled, "Step back from the brink in Georgia," in the Financial Times.  

The full text is provided below as a courtesy to Atlantic Council members:

War between Russia and Georgia is not inevitable if the west stands together in support of Georgia and Georgia's leaders take steps to defuse the current crisis and lay the ground for future negotiations. The US should lead international efforts to promote a peaceful outcome. Not only would a spiral of deadly violence disrupt energy supplies across Europe and Asia. Through Abkhazia, the Moscow-backed breakaway region of Georgia, Russia is posing a strategic challenge that the US dare not ignore.

In response to Russia's provocations, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia can dispel claims that he is a "hothead" by acting like a true statesman. Mr Saakashvili can ease tensions by promising that Georgia will not initiate force against Abkhazia. He should invite Abkhaz leaders to issue a concurrent pledge not to use force and to reopen civilian crossings to Abkhazia. At the same time, he should reinforce his offer of "unlimited autonomy" for Abkhazia by detailing specific power-sharing arrangements aimed at protecting and promoting Abkhaz interests, including international security guarantees.

Russia must also pull back from the brink. To that end, the US and key European allies must recognise that the situation is just too dangerous to ignore. They can make clear their disapproval of Russia's recent actions by urging Russia to reverse its decision establishing legal ties to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and withdraw the recent surge of "peacekeepers" that were deployed with offensive weapons. Western countries should publicly affirm that recognition of Abkhazia, de facto annexation or acts of war constitute a red line that Russia must not cross.

They must also make clear the penalties if Russia crosses this red line. For example, the European Union could suspend its negotiations with Russia on a partnership and co-operation agreement, revoke its visa facilitation regime for Russians and impose sanctions on Russian businesses investing in Abkhazia.

Nato should also make clear its support for Georgia by including Georgia's membership action plan prominently on the agenda of its next ministers' meeting. The alliance could also extend its combat air patrol to Georgia.

Finally, Russia cannot be a mediator if it is a party to the conflict. If it persists, the US should withdraw from the "friends group" - where Russia acts as facilitator - and steward the creation of a contact group made up of countries with goodwill towards Georgia.

These measures can help mitigate the escalation of conflict. Then Georgian officials and Abkhaz representatives should undertake a set of measures designed to change the dynamics of future negotiations.