Atlantic Council

The forum was the fifth in a series of events co-sponsored by the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Korea Economic Institute (KEI). The session focused on prospects for a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and implications for regional security and featured presentations by Jack Pritchard, President of the Korea Economic Institute and James Goodby, a non-resident senior fellow for the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. Commentary on the presentations was given by Lim Wonhyuk, a visiting fellow for the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and Yang Bojiang, a visiting fellow for the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.

Summary

Jack Pritchard stated that it is necessary to begin to discuss a peace mechanism, even though the Six-party Talks may not result in resolving the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula. He thought that steps would still be necessary towards building a multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia. This organization could encourage activities such as transparency, early notification of military exercises, region-wide disaster relief, establishment of a regional agreement on incidents-at-sea, and energy security. In Pritchard’s opinion, the regime would not have to include North Korea. He stated that it should include China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the United States, as well as non-voting entities which could include: Australia, India, Mongolia, and the European Union. In Pritchard’s opinion, the United States must initiate the model and staffing must start at a minimal level, which would create an initial level of conflict resolution capability. Movement towards this multilateral model was seen by Pritchard as having the possibility to change regional security and political dynamics and allow parallel movement of a permanent replacement of the 1953 armistice. Following the success of these multilateral steps, movement to issues aside from the DPRK’s nuclear issue could be possible.

James Goodby stated that a peace regime in Korea involving a range of relations to promote security cooperation and a multilateral peace organization in Northeast Asia were a necessity. Goodby described the 1992 Basic Agreement as an illustration of the model between North and South Korea. This Agreement was established to promote freedom of inter-Korean travel, cooperation in the economic realm, and a reduction in arms, but it lacks the involvement of other countries. Therefore new multilateral talks should be held in parallel with Six-party Talks. In Goodby’s opinion, negotiations could unfold through a formal or a piecemeal approach. The piecemeal approach would begin to create a defacto piece regime, defined by Goodby as an organic approach without a defined end-state. An organization would then develop through trial and error. This new process could follow the blueprint of the Basic Agreement. Goodby stated that barriers in advancing this process would consist of North Korea’s reluctance to reform its economic and political system as well as unresolved nuclear issues. [To read Goodby’s essay "Creating a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula," click here .]

Lim Wonhyuk stated that the context of any problem is the most vital factor towards achieving a resolution. Therefore, the context must be considered before a solution can be proposed. He said that to apply the approach used in the creation of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the EU to the situation in Northeast Asia would not necessarily be productive. On the issue of North Korea, Lim said the problem should not be solved necessarily through a multilateral architecture, but rather through a resolution between the DPRK and the U.S. Lim reiterated that multilateral initiatives have played a useful role as a forum for reconciliation in other settings, but that it was important to recognize its limitations.

Yang Bojiang stated that the United States should take the lead in developing a peace regime, but that Northeast Asian nations should not copy the European model. Yang said that the views in China on the evolution of the security architecture of Northeast Asia pointed to optimism that a regional multilateral security organization could be in China’s interests. Yang believed that there should be a liaison organization created to consider issues for multilateral cooperation, but stated that this could begin while the participants in Six-Party process work to implement the joint statement from September of 2005.