Atlantic Council

Mohan Guruswamy, Chairman of the Center for Policy Alternatives in New Delhi, discussed India-China relations with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center.  The discussion was moderated by Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center.

Event Summary:

The Atlantic Council recently hosted Mr. Mohan Guruswamy, South Asia Center Nonresident Senior Fellow and Chairman of New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Alternatives. In his talk, he addressed the deep-seated rivalry between two Asian powerhouses, India and China, and the factors contributing to the exacerbation of the issue. He also discussed the future of the India-China relationship – where it is headed and what it could possibly bring on both regional and international scales.

Mr. Guruswamy first explored the India-China relationship through a historical lens, pointing out that the relations between these two neighbors have always been tenuous, riddled with contentious border issues and territorial claims, and made even more muddled by the lack of a clear historical record demarcating the borders. He indicated that the burgeoning border disputes, partly a result of the British Raj's lack of setting clear borders, were exacerbated by China's occupation of Lassa in 1962 and then by India's retaliatory occupation of the Tawang region. Attempts to resolve these border issues – from China's package deal offer in 1986 to their revised proposal in 1988 - have proved unsuccessful, and now neither country is willing to further negotiate on their dispute.

In today’s political context, Guruswamy observed, these two neighbors still show an unrelenting rivalry. China's fears regarding India, such as their belief that India is a part of the US' plan to encircle their country (a claim which China feels is "evidenced" by the US-India Civilian Nuclear Agreement) encourages China's desire to "trip" India before the military asymmetry will begin to close. Further adding to the preexisting distrust between the two countries is India's economic growth, specifically as China's GDP growth rate is expected to decline in the recent future while India's is supposed to steadily increase. Other political factors that continue to deepen the India - China divide is the issue of Tibet.  Ever since India granted political asylum to the Dalai Lama, China has accused India of being pro Tibet (despite India’s acknowledgement of Tibet as a Chinese territory). There is also what Guruswamy calls ‘the coming crisis of the Dalai Lamas’, where two Dalai Lamas will rise (one from Dharamsala and one from Tibet) to succeed upon the passing of the current Dalai Lama which will further create tension regarding this issue. The political stability of other key regional countries – such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and Myanmar – all have the potential to impact India-China relations as well.

Indian interests in respect to China in the long-run include the following key concepts: avoiding an arms race with China, avoiding entanglement in the US-China rivalry, and avoiding being kept in check by China. India’s aim for the future, Guruswamy asserted, is to “walk softly but carry a big enough stick to keep the dragon at bay”.

The question and answer session following the discussion addressed several topics, most importantly, India’s developing relationship with key strategic countries Russia, the US and China. In respect to recent Indo-Chinese cooperation (specifically at the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change), Guruswamy noted that while they were rivals, they were not enemies, and that “they knew how to work together with common interests in mind”. To reassert his point, Guruswamy exemplified their burgeoning trade relationship, and the potential for the two countries to work together on a number of key security issues, such as terrorism and drug trafficking.

More on Mohan Guruswamy:

Guruswamy heads the Center for Policy Alternatives in New Delhi, an independent think tank that focuses on critical policy issues and whose studies are disseminated to India's political, administrative and media leaders.  Prior to working at CPAS, Mr. Guruswamy was Advisor to the Finance Minister with the rank of Secretary to the Government of India.

His diverse career path also includes teaching, senior management and journalism.  He is a frequent television commentator on matters of current interest and writes a widely read and disseminated column. Guruswamy has authored several books on policy issues, the latest being The Looming Crisis in India's Agriculture; India China Relations: The Border Issue and Beyond; and Chasing the Dragon: Will India Catch-Up with China?.