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EgyptSource
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Will the Presidential Election Bring Stability to Egypt?

Magdy Samaan | May 24, 2012
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For three weeks Egypt has witnessed presidential campaigning, rallies, debates, and the rest of the paraphernalia of electoral politics. It has seemed as if Egypt is turning from authoritarianism to democracy, but a close look at the process suggests that it continues to be a virtual simulation, lacking the essence of the democratic process.

There is a piece of graffiti on Mohammed Mahmoud Street in downtown Cairo, showing a military officer wearing a cape but with his face replaced by the date 30 June, 2012 – the day set by Egypt's interim government, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), to hand power to an elected president.

Many Egyptians believe that the presidential election, starting on Wednesday, will in fact be the last episode in a series of steps, masquerading as a "messy transitional period", intended to guarantee the power of the military regime that has ruled the country since 1952, and not to promote democracy and freedom.

Here are the important questions waiting to be answered in the forthcoming days. Will the presidential election bring stability to Egypt? Will it end the rule of military after 60 years? Is Egypt going to turn into a democratic country?
 
The answer of the stability question depends on how free and fair the election will be.
There are already doubts of the fairness of some of the procedures put in place before the elections both by SCAF itself and by the Presidential Election Committee. 
 
If the election process sees serious violations – as was so common under the old Mubarak regime – the situation can explode in another round of revolutionary protests. That will especially be the case if Ahmed Shafiq, a former general and Mubarak's last prime minister, wins.
 
The main competition will be between the candidates of the ruling military and of the various Islamic "currents". The former rely on the networks of the central state bureaucracy, such as the security forces, the dissolved National Democratic Party, and the beneficiaries of the regime such as business and big families – all those who are seeking to preserve their interests. For them, victory for Mr Shafiq, or for Amr Moussa, Secretary General of the of the Arab League and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, would be a success. 
 
On the other hand the Islamists rely on networks of Islamic religious institutions, which despite its secular image ballooned during the period of military rule after 1952. Their most prominent candidates are Mohammed Morsi, a candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood and Abdulmoneim Aboul Fotouh, a renegade former Brotherhood leader who promotes himself as moderate but is also backed by the ultraconservative Salafists.
 
The question is which of these two institutional machines can capture the so-called "Sofa Party", those never before concerned with politics.
 
Over the last year and a half, these "average citizens" have become fatigued by the absence of security, and the economic crisis. They are worried by the collapse of the state, and cannot afford the consequences.
 
For these there is no place for risk: slogans of freedom and democracy are not the top priorities of the more than 40 per cent who are illiterate and the more than a half the population dependent on subsidies for their daily lives.
 
These voters with low awareness and high life burdens were obvious targets during the parliamentary elections for the Islamist parties, who played on their religious sensibilities and their daily needs. This time the same voters are targets for the old regime propaganda machines, telling them that Mr Shafiq, with his military background, is the best candidate to bring stability.
 
This contest of machine politics, leading to another general in office, is not what the revolutionaries who filled Tahrir Square in February last year had in mind. And it is not clear that, once the results are known, they will stand for it. There is a long way to go before Egypt's "democratic transition" plays itself out.
 
Magdy Samaan is a journalist working at the Daily Telegraph's Cairo bureua. He was a 2011 Visting Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. Mr. Samaan has previously worked as a correspondent for the Egyptian independent newspapers Al-Shorouk and Al-Masry al-Youm as well as Al Jazeera, reporting on politics, religious minorities, and US-Egypt relations.
 
This article was originally published by The Daily Telegraph.
 
Photo Credit: Reuters
 

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About EgyptSource

 

EgyptSource, a project of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, follows Egypt’s transition and provides a platform for Egyptian perspectives on the major issues – economic, political, legal, religious and human rights – that are at stake in the post-Mubarak era.

If you are interested in submitting an article for publication on EgyptSource, please send an inquiry via email with a short outline of your idea. 

The views expressed in EgyptSource are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

 

Follow us on Twitter: @EgyptSource

 

EgyptSource Team

 

Michele Dunne
Director, Rafik Hariri Center 
mdunne@acus.org
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Nancy Messieh
Editor, EgyptSource, MENASource
nmessieh@acus.org 
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Tarek Radwan
Resident Contributor, EgyptSource; Editor, MENASource
tradwan@acus.org
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Faces of Egypt 

 

Journalist and videographer Abanoub Emad explains the drive behind his work: “I want to cover the truth..If it was just a job for me I wouldn't risk my life, but this is what I want to do…and this is what differentiates the quality of work. You can tell who's doing it for the sake of doing it, and who's doing it because it's what they love to do” 

At twenty-two, Amr El Salanekly has won the 2012 Clinton Global Initiative fellowship, co-founded a social incubator and an educational platform for underprivileged kids, turned down a job with Bangladeshi Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus’ Grameen Bank, and raised hundreds of thousands of Egyptian pounds for community projects in Egypt.

Check out the rest of the Faces of the New Egypt series here. 

 

About the Contributors

 

Alaa Al Aswany, the Arab world's bestselling novelist, is the author of The Yacoubian Building, Chicago, and Friendly Fire. His work is published in thirty-one languages worldwide.  Read his EgyptSource posts here. 

 

Yussef Auf is an Egyptian judge and 2012 Humphrey Fellow at American University’s Washington College of Law. He is currently pursuing a PhD in Constitutional Law and Political Systems at Cairo University. Read his EgyptSource posts here.

 

 

Nadine Abdalla is a PhD Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin and a writer for Egyptian newspaper, Al-Masry Al-Youm. Read her EgyptSource posts here. 

Amr Hamzawy joined the Department of Public Policy and Administration at the American University in Cairo in 2011, where he continues to serve today. He is a former member of parliament and a member of the National Salvation Front. Read his EgyptSource posts here. 

Jayson Casper is a writer with Arab West Report, Christianity Today, and Lapido Media. He blogs on Egyptian politics, religion, and culture at A Sense of Belonging. Read his EgyptSource posts here.

Wael Eskandar is a blogger and a writer for Egypt's Ahram Online. He has written for publications like Daily News Egypt and Community Times. Read his EgyptSource posts here.

  

Soraya Morayef is a journalist and writer based in Cairo. She blogs under suzeeinthecity.wordpress.com. Read her EgyptSource posts here.

Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi is a UAE based political commentator. He tweets as @SultanAlQassemi. Read his EgyptSource posts here.

 

Magdy Samaan is a freelance journalist and a 2011 MENA Democracy Fellow at the World Affairs Institute. Read his EgyptSource posts here.

 

Haitham Tabei is a special correspondent for the Washington Post and Asharq Saudi newspaper in Cairo.

Read his EgyptSource posts here.

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