- President Mohamed Morsi's Constitutional Decree - December 9, 2012 (Arabic) (English)
- Final Draft of Constitution, published November 29, 2012 (Arabic) (English) (Audio)
- President Mohamed Morsi's Constitutional Decree - November 22, 2012 (Arabic) (English)
- Draft of the Constitution, published October 24, 2012) (Arabic)
- Draft of the Constitution, published October 16, 2012 (Arabic) (English)
- President Mohamed Morsi's Decree Pardoning January 25 Prisoners - October 8 (English) (Arabic)
- President Mohamed Morsi's Constitutional Declaration - August 12 (English) (Arabic)
- President Mohamed Morsi’s Decree reinstating the dissolved parliament – July 8 (English) (Arabic)
- Renaissance (Nahda) Project (English)
- Morsi Meter (English) (Arabic)
- SCAF Amendments to Interim Constitution - June 17, 2012 (English) (Arabic)
- Interim Constitution (full text, English and Arabic), ratified by popular referendum on March 23, 2011)
- Law on the Presidential Election, No. 174, 2005 (Arabic)
- Electoral laws for the People’s Assembly and Shura Council (full text, Arabic, amended July 19, 2011)
- Law on Non-Governmental Organizations, No. 84/2002 (English)
- Law on the People’s Assembly, amended October 2011 (PDF, Arabic)
- Supra-Constitutional Principles (English) (Arabic)
- The Final Draft Wording of the Articles on Defense and National Security in the New Constitution (English) (Arabic)
- Leaked Articles of the Draft Constitution (English)
Egyptian Government Resources
- Official Facebook page of President Mohamed Morsi (Arabic)
- Official Facebook page of Prime Minister Hesham Qandil (Arabic)
- Official Facebook page of Presidential Spokesman Yasser Ali (Arabic)
- Official Facebook page of the Supreme Council of the Armed forces (Arabic)
- Official website of the Cabinet (English) (Arabic)
- Ministry of Interior (English) (Arabic)
- Ministry of Foreign Affairs (English) (Arabic)
- Ministry of Finance (English) (Arabic)
- Ministry of International Cooperation (Arabic)
- Ministry of Social Solidarity (Arabic)
- Ministry of Information (Arabic)
- Ministry of Industry & Foreign Trade (English) (Arabic)
- Ahram Weekly (English)
- Egypt Independent (English)
- Daily News Egypt (English)
- Ahram Online (English)
- Akhbar al-Youm (Arabic)
- Ahram (Arabic)
- Ahram Gateway (Arabic)
- al-Masry al-Youm (Arabic)
- al-Shorouk (Arabic)
- al-Wafd (Arabic)
- Masrawy (Arabic)
- EGYNews (Arabic)
Think Tanks and NGOs:
- al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (English)
- Arab Forum for Alternatives (English) (Arabic)
- Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (English) (Arabic)
- Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (English) (Arabic)
- Adl (Justice)
- al-Asala (Authenticity)
- Building and Development
- Democratic Front
- al-Dostour (Constitution)
- Freedom and Justice
- Ghad (Tomorrow)
- Ittihad (Union)
- Karama (Dignity)
- al-Masriyin al-Ahrar (Free Egyptians)
- Masr al-Hurriya (Egypt Freedom)
- Nour (Light)
- Popular Alliance
- Reform and Development
- Social Democratic
- Sufi Liberation
- al-Tayar al-Masry (Egyptian Current)
Predictions that Egyptians will head to the presidential poll in large numbers on May 23 and 24 are firm and consistent, but forecasts of how they will vote diverge significantly. Opinion polls have been all but useless, with each of the four main candidates (Morsi, Aboul Fotouh, Moussa, Shafik) strongly in the lead in one poll or another over the last week—and the poll results in most cases have obviously been influenced by the group that conducted the poll. Some have even shown in the lead leftist candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, who admittedly recently picked up support from those disenchanted with Aboul Fotouh or Moussa after their debate.
The hopeless tangle starts to unwind, however, when one considers some of the principal factors that will affect the vote. One question is whether political mobilization or individual opinion will prove to be a stronger factor. Only one of the candidates—the FJP’s Morsi—has an enormous, disciplined party structure behind him to mobilize voters and place candidate agents and campaign volunteers at every single polling place. An FJP activist explained the system to me: there are some 50 million Egyptians living in towns and villages that average about 10,000 residents. In each of these, the FJP has recruited 100-200 committed members. Each of these members is expected to be able to reach out to at least 10 other persons to vote for Morsi; these people will be heads of families and able to persuade their family members to vote likewise. The system is clear and simple, and the FJP is reasonably confident that it can get Morsi a majority or close to it in the first round.
Shafik has no party, Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP) having been dissolved after his removal. The question now is whether the old NDP networks are reviving to support Shafik and, if so, how effective they will be. An Egyptian journalist who visited the small city of Beni Suef on May 17 recounted how the FJP and NDP were competing for influence. He listened to the mosque imam’s Friday sermon, which did not name names but clearly implied that a pious voter should choose Morsi. When the imam came out into the main square after prayers, he was confronted by the local mayor and several other senior municipal officials—all of them were ex-NDP, as opposition was barred from the last set of municipal elections--who complained vociferously that the imam had no right to use the pulpit to give a political endorsement. They then proceeded to endorse Shafik publicly and broadcast around the village that any right-thinking person would vote for him.
The Moussa and Aboul Fotouh campaigns are not believed to have large mobilization capabilities, although it is still possible that Salafis will come out strongly for Aboul Fotouh; they certainly were effective mobilizers for their own candidates in the parliamentary elections. Short of this, Moussa and Aboul Fotouh are expected to capture votes based on their own reputations. Moussa has extensive name recognition due to his years as a foreign minister popular for his tough talk on Arab causes and later as Arab League Secretary General. Aboul Fotouh is less widely known, but many respect him as a principled Islamist able to work with non-Islamists. Still, such factors seem weak when weighed against the hard realities of the Brotherhood’s vast voter outreach apparatus.
Another question is the rural versus the urban vote. Rural areas almost always have a higher turnout in Egypt’s elections, leading analysts to forecast that 55-60 percent of the vote will come from small towns and villages—a strong point for Morsi and possibly for Moussa. Also, rural voters traditionally have voted based on mobilization rather than individual preferences.
Campaigns are also wringing their hands now over what is likely to happen in the first round—where it is possible for a candidate to win outright with a simple majority—versus the expected second round. Morsi seems to be the only candidate that could possibly make it across the threshold in round one, although few predict he will actually do so. One FJP activist worried that “Morsi’s best chance is to surprise everyone and win in the first round. If he does not but makes it into the second round, all the others will unite against us around the other candidate.” The FJP’s fear is that the other candidate in the runoff will be Aboul Fotouh—a renegade Muslim Brother—leading to an “extremely uncomfortable” struggle.
An activist from Amr Moussa’s campaign had a different set of worries. Many non-Islamist voters are unenthusiastic about Moussa, although he probably has the best shot at beating Morsi, because they see Moussa as “filul” (old regime) or too willing to compromise with Islamists. Many have been cagey, pledging their support to both Moussa and Shafik, or have told the Moussa campaign outright that “I will vote my conscience in the first round” (vote for Sabahi, for example), “but I’ll be with you in the second round.” These tactics are giving Moussa’s campaign good reason to fear that he might not make it to the second round.
Indeed, Hamdeen Sabahi might turn out to be the Ralph Nader of this race. I will make one prediction: whatever the polls say, he will not be elected president of Egypt.
Michele Dunne is director of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
Photo Credit: Getty
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Faces of Egypt
Journalist and videographer Abanoub Emad explains the drive behind his work: “I want to cover the truth..If it was just a job for me I wouldn't risk my life, but this is what I want to do…and this is what differentiates the quality of work. You can tell who's doing it for the sake of doing it, and who's doing it because it's what they love to do”
At twenty-two, Amr El Salanekly has won the 2012 Clinton Global Initiative fellowship, co-founded a social incubator and an educational platform for underprivileged kids, turned down a job with Bangladeshi Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus’ Grameen Bank, and raised hundreds of thousands of Egyptian pounds for community projects in Egypt.
Check out the rest of the Faces of the New Egypt series here.
About the Contributors
Alaa Al Aswany, the Arab world's bestselling novelist, is the author of The Yacoubian Building, Chicago, and Friendly Fire. His work is published in thirty-one languages worldwide. Read his EgyptSource posts here.
Yussef Auf is an Egyptian judge and 2012 Humphrey Fellow at American University’s Washington College of Law. He is currently pursuing a PhD in Constitutional Law and Political Systems at Cairo University. Read his EgyptSource posts here.
Amr Hamzawy joined the Department of Public Policy and Administration at the American University in Cairo in 2011, where he continues to serve today. He is a former member of parliament and a member of the National Salvation Front. Read his EgyptSource posts here.
Haitham Tabei is a special correspondent for the Washington Post and Asharq Saudi newspaper in Cairo.
Read his EgyptSource posts here.
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