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From the Archives: NATO in 2010

Neil Leslie — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 05:00:00 -0500

The challenges that face NATO include "new security threats, the future of Russia, the state of the European Pillar, American involvement in NATO, the state of the global economy, and potential cataclysmic events."

That was the assessment of Martin H. A. van Heuven, writing a paper for the Atlantic Council in 1999, as he looked forward to the state of NATO in 2010.

Click below to read Heuven's extremely prescient piece from the archives:

NATO In 2010

Warsaw Transatlantic Forum Photos

Brooke Heaton — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 19:03:07 -0400

Check Out New Atlanticist

James Joyner — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 16:17:28 -0500

Our experiment at manually aggregating breaking news of interest to Atlanticists has been interesting but not as successful as we'd have liked. While it's possible that we'll bring back Atlantic Update in a new form, for now we're signing off.

Regular readers and subscribers who aren't already reading New Atlanticist, our policy blog, should give it a try. In addition to long-form analytical piecies, we'll be adding in more short news update stories such as you've seen here in recent days, picking those we find most interesting.

GBP Hits New Low Against the Euro

Neil Leslie — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:30:00 -0500

The British sterling has fallen to a new record low against the euro. BBC:

The pound stood at $1.4807 and at 1.1450 euros in London late morning trading.

[...]

At one point, sterling declined to under 1.14 euros. It also touched a new low against a basket of currencies. Interest rates have been cut both in the UK and in the eurozone, but they remain higher in the 15-member euro currency area. The pound was also hit by new data suggesting the UK economy had shrunk by 1% in the three months to November.

[...]

Lower interest rates make it less attractive for foreigners to hold pounds. A weaker pound is better for the UK exporters but is bad news for British holidaymakers who plan to go abroad during the Christmas season, and also makes imported goods more expensive.

UK Troops to Start Iraq Withdrawal in March

Peter Cassata — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 06:00:00 -0500

According to the BBC, UK troops will begin pulling out of Iraq in March 2009:

The UK has been negotiating the legal basis on which its forces can stay in the Gulf state when its UN mandate expires at the end of the year. It still has 4,100 troops in Basra but defense chiefs plan a withdrawal over the next year if Iraqi elections in January pass off peacefully.

A withdrawal could allow resources to be diverted to Afghanistan. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has indicated that almost all British troops should leave Iraq by the middle of next year, with a few hundred possibly remaining to train Iraqi security forces.

UK government sources have said that helicopters, intelligence officers, and gradually troops will be transferred to Afghanistan after the Iraq withdrawal. The Times reported that around 400 British Troops will remain in Iraq:

Under present planning, the reduced British force of about 400 will include the Service personnel who are based in Baghdad, with the exception of the SAS squadrons. Some British personnel will remain in the south to continue training the Iraqi Navy at Umm Qasr port, after a specific request for them to do so by the Baghdad Government.

As recently as last month, the UK said it is willing to send an additional 2,000 troops to Afghanistan, where the Taliban and militant forces are stepping up their attacks.

Economic Pressure on Merkel Continues

Peter Cassata — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 06:00:00 -0500

The recent pressure on Angela Merkel to enact further stimulus measures for Germany's economy continues, the WSJ reports:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing mounting pressure to boost her stimulus plans for Europe's largest economy and reverse a thrifty strategy that has her out of step with other nations.

She will likely be challenged on the point when European Union leaders gather for a summit Thursday. On Monday, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met to discuss policies to revive the European economy – without inviting the German chancellor. Both men have announced ambitious fiscal, regulatory and other initiatives in response to the financial crisis, while Ms. Merkel's fiscal boost for Germany's €2.5 ($3.2) trillion economy includes only €4 ($5.2) billion of fresh money next year.

All sides played down talk of a rift with Berlin, but in Germany Ms. Merkel's absence was seen as a symptom of her foot-dragging role in Europe's economic deliberations. Meanwhile on Tuesday, Germany's constitutional court reinstated tax breaks for commuters that Ms. Merkel's government cut in 2007 – forcing her to put a brave face on the legal defeat, calling it a boost to the economy although she has rejected major tax cuts as a stimulus.

The recession in Germany has turned into a major threat to Merkel's political future. Analysts suggest Merkel's insistence on fiscal discipline will cost her popularity as the effects of the economic downturn set in.

NATO Needs New Afghan Supply Line - Ukraine?

Neil Leslie — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 07:00:00 -0500

NATO forces are looking into alternative supply routes for their increasingly over-stretched forces in Afghanistan, and could turn to countries such as Ukraine and Belarus to provide them. The Guardian:

Four serious attacks on US and Nato supplies in Pakistan during the past month, including two in the past three days, have added to the sense of urgency to conclude pacts with former Soviet republics bordering Afghanistan to the north. Nato is negotiating with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to allow supplies for Nato forces, including fuel, to cross borders into Afghanistan from the north. The deal, which officials said was close to being agreed, follows an agreement with Moscow this year allowing Nato supplies to be transported by rail or road through Russia. The deal could allow more fuel for Nato forces to be transported from refineries in Baku, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. Most of the 75m gallons of fuel estimated to be used by Nato forces annually in Afghanistan comes from refineries in Pakistan.

[...]

Nato officials said yesterday that the organisation is negotiating with Ukraine and Belarus for a land route which, though long, would avoid Pakistan and the pirates of the Gulf of Aden. The officials yesterday played down the strategic significance of Sunday's attack in Peshawar, the Pakistani town on the main transit route through the Khyber pass. But independent analysts described it as a well-planned move, with 100 militants torching more than 100 trucks.

According to a British defense official the attacks haven't made a huge dent to supplies, mainly due to the large amount of traffic passing through the area. Additionally, the contractors NATO hires to deliver supplies to troops are local Pashtun businesses, and it is believed the Taliban could risk a backlash if they continue to target them. More than 70% of the supplies for NATO troops in Afghanistan land at the port of Karachi and are taken to Peshawar, then through the Khyber pass to Kabul. More important cargos are flown in:

More urgent or valuable supplies to Nato forces in Afghanistan are flown in to the Bagram air base near Kabul, and the Kandahar base, which can take large C-17 transport aircraft used by the US and Britain. Hercules aircraft, the workhorse of the RAF, can also land at the British base Camp Bastion, in Helmand province.

But even with extra land routes from the north, more attacks on the overland routes to southern Afghanistan could exacerbate Nato's existing lack of "strategic airlift", UK officials said yesterday.

EU Kosovo Force Launched Tuesday

Peter Cassata — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 06:15:00 -0500

On Tuesday, December 9, the EU's policing and justice mission in Kosovo, EULEX, assumed responsibilities from UNMIK. The deployment met resistance in November when plans for a separate police force for ethnic Serbian towns within Kosovo were protested by Kosovar officials, who said the proposal was a violation of the country's sovereignty. RFE/RL:

Starting December 9, hundreds of European Union and U.S. personnel will assume responsibility for bringing Kosovo's rule-of-law institutions in line with European standards. They will take the place of UNMIK, the United Nations mission in Kosovo, which has administered the territory since 1999.

"We're at initial capacity. We'll have about 1,300 or so people here," deputy chief Roy Reeve said in describing the European Union Rule of Law Mission, commonly known as EULEX, which when it reaches full capacity will represent the EU's largest civilian mission to date. "We will have a couple of months to build up to the full operational strength of the mission, which is the 1,900, plus 1,000 national staff working with us," Reeve said.

The December 9 transfer from UNMIK to EULEX was meant to be a high-water mark in Kosovo's evolution from a former Serbian province to a UN protectorate to an independent state. Instead, the chaotic lead-up to the deployment has prompted fears the EULEX mission may ultimately lead to the de facto partition of the ethnically divided territory.

The WSJ cited other difficulties the new mission will face, including organized crime:

This unprecedented mission in a country recognized as a major conduit for smuggling drugs and weapons into Europe faces steep challenges. A bombing in Kosovo's capital of Pristina and a murky spy affair involving German agents highlight some of the diplomatic difficulties as the EU begins the ambitious effort in the Balkans.

"It's an extremely difficult situation for the EU," says Dusan Reljic, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. "They are testing their capability for state-building in an area that is riven by factions and crime."

For now, EULEX will receive €205 ($264.3) million for the next 16 months, but this is predicted to be extended for at least several years. As for the risk of de facto partitioning Kosovo's ethnic Serbian areas, the details of the mission remain foggy, according to RFE/RL:

The role of EULEX deployment in Serb areas like north Mitrovica is unclear. Some 100 EULEX officials will be deployed in north Mitrovica, including a handful of police and border officers at administrative crossings into Serbia. The border crossings were the scene of violence following Kosovo's independence declaration in February.

The deployment of EULEX, analysts say, is critical to bringing both Kosovo and Serbia closer to the EU.

UK, France Snub Germany at Financial Meeting

Peter Cassata — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 06:00:00 -0500

On Monday, Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy urged coordinated European fiscal stimulus measures to curb a possible recession. The call came after a summit in London to which Angela Merkel was not invited, another example of the increasing disagreement between the two countries and Germany over an appropriate response to the financial crisis. The FT:

Mr. Brown and Mr. Sarkozy pointed to a massive public works plan by Barack Obama, U.S. president-elect, as further evidence that they are right to argue for a large stimulus package in Europe. But their joint participation at a “Global Europe” summit in London was seen as a snub to Angela Merkel, German chancellor, who was not invited and who has been accused of failing to act decisively to inject demand into her own economy. Ms. Merkel’s ministers have variously suggested that the Anglo-French enthusiasm for deficit spending was akin to lemmings jumping off a cliff, or that fiscal stimulus measures elsewhere might serve to bolster Germany’s export economy.

Mr. Brown and Mr. Sarkozy both revealed that they had spoken to Ms Merkel over the weekend to reassure her that they were not ganging up on Germany just days before a European Union summit discusses the economic crisis. José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, also attended the London event and revealed that he too had spoken to Ms. Merkel on Monday, explaining that any EU recovery package would be fatally flawed if Germany were not on board.

However, without Germany's help, the chances of an effective rescue package seem quite diminished.

Mumbai Terror Group Recruiting Westerners

Peter Cassata — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 15:23:31 -0500

The LA Times reported that Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group behind the Mumbai terrorist attacks, has been recruiting Westerners:

For years, Lashkar-e-Taiba has actively recruited Westerners, especially Britons and Americans, serving as a kind of farm team for Islamic militants who have gone on to execute attacks for Al Qaeda, a close ally. The Pakistani network makes its training camps accessible to English speakers, providing crucial skills to an increasingly young and Western-born generation of extremists.

The news echoes remarks last month by CIA Director General Michael Hayden that Al Qaeda is making concerted efforts to bring Westerners into its ranks. This is certainly a disturbing trend.

Atlantic Update Feed

From the Archives: NATO in 2010

NATO In 2010

Warsaw Transatlantic Forum Photos

Check Out New Atlanticist

GBP Hits New Low Against the Euro

UK Troops to Start Iraq Withdrawal in March

Economic Pressure on Merkel Continues

Related Posts:

NATO Needs New Afghan Supply Line - Ukraine?

EU Kosovo Force Launched Tuesday

Related Posts:

UK, France Snub Germany at Financial Meeting

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Mumbai Terror Group Recruiting Westerners