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From the Archives: NATO in 2010

Neil Leslie — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 04:00:00 -0600

The challenges that face NATO include "new security threats, the future of Russia, the state of the European Pillar, American involvement in NATO, the state of the global economy, and potential cataclysmic events."

That was the assessment of Martin H. A. van Heuven, writing a paper for the Atlantic Council in 1999, as he looked forward to the state of NATO in 2010.

Click below to read Heuven's extremely prescient piece from the archives:

NATO In 2010

Terrorist's Goal: War Between India and Pakistan

Neil Leslie — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:00:10 -0600

India-Pakistan experts suggested that last week's attacks on Mumbai were designed to provoke a war between the two countries, thereby scuppering President-elect Obama's plans for peace in the region, which has been at the top of his agenda. The Times:

Relations between India and Pakistan were on a knife edge last night amid fears that Delhi’s response to the Mumbai attacks could undermine the Pakistani army’s campaign against Islamic militants on the frontier with Afghanistan. Officials and analysts in the region believe that last week’s atrocities were designed to provoke a crisis, or even a war, between the nuclear-armed neighbours, diverting Islamabad’s attention from extremism in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and thus relieving pressure on al-Qaeda, Taleban and other militants based there.

One analyst even described the attacks as a “pre-emptive strike” against Barack Obama’s strategy to put Pakistan and Afghanistan at the centre of US foreign policy. The United States and its allies now face a balancing act in supporting India’s efforts to investigate the Mumbai attacks, without jeopardizing Pakistan’s crucial support for the Nato campaign in Afghanistan.

[...]

The Indian government is now considering a range of responses, including suspending its five-year peace process with Pakistan, closing their border, stopping direct flights and sending troops to the frontier, according to Indian officials and analysts.

With elections in May, India’s government is under enormous pressure to respond to the attacks, which it believes was carried out by the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. Yesterday Pakistan threatened to deploy troops to the border with India in response to what a Pakistani security officer called a heightening of tensions. Troops may be diverted from the tribal areas the official said, leaving the troublesome Afghan border vulnerable to greater militant activity.

NATO Tensions Over Ukraine/Georgia Membership

Neil Leslie — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:00:10 -0600

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice will meet with NATO ministers to discuss controversial plans for proposed Ukrainian and Georgian membership of the alliance. Financial Times:

The US wants to defuse tensions with other Nato members on when Georgia and Ukraine will join the alliance by focusing on internal political and security reforms both countries must accomplish before they can join.

As she prepares for a two-day meeting of Nato foreign ministers tomorrow, Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, has said Washington will not press for the two former Soviet republics to gain immediate entry to the alliance's Membership Application Plan (Map).

Nato members agreed at a Bucharest summit this year that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members. But Germany, France and other states made clear the immediate offer of Map - a key stage in the Nato application process - would be seen by Russia as provocative.

Last week Britain had suggested finding other ways to bring the two countries into the alliance, and the U.S. seemed to back away from plans for full membership. The meeting will also focus on a new security architecture for Europe proposed by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

UK May Send 2000 More Troops to Afghanistan, Where's the European Contribution?

Neil Leslie — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:00:00 -0600

Britain could send up to 2000 extra troops to Afghanistan if U.S. President-elect Barack Obama asks allies for more help in the fight against the Taliban, according to the BBC. At Downing Street, during a visit to London, Afghanistan's President, Hamid Karzai, told Gordon Brown all efforts were being made "to bring violence down" after the Afghan foreign minister urged Britain to send in more troops. However, the Ministry of Defence said it had not received a request for extra troops.

Obama has pledged to send more troops to Afghanistan, where the United States has more than 30,000 soldiers, and he is expected to put pressure on European members of NATO to do more. Britain, which has already has more than 8,000 troops in Afghanistan, has urged other countries to make a bigger contribution.

High time for other NATO members to contribute their fair share in Afghanistan methinks.

Korean Relations Heading 'Toward Catastrophe'

Neil Leslie — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:00:00 -0600

Former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung has warned relations between the two Koreas may be heading toward catastrophe, reports Reuters. The reclusive state, blaming the South's conservative government for dragging relations to a dangerous low, has said it would close their border on December 1 and is also limiting travel across the border with its main benefactor China. Speculation has also mounted that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have fallen ill, and could be losing his iron grip on power.

There is no clear successor to Kim, who become the communist world's first dynastic ruler when he took over from his father and founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994 but remains the state's eternal president.Park Young-ho, an expert on the North at the South's Korea Institute for National Unification said the North may be trying to keep a firmer grip on its people who are hearing reports from the outside world that Kim may be sick.

Russia in Talks on Permanent Base for Black Sea Fleet in Abkhazia

Neil Leslie — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:00:00 -0600

Russia and Abkhazia are in talks on establishing a permanent Russian naval presence in Ochamchira, a seaside town in the separatist Georgian republic, the Abkhazian foreign minister told RIA Novosti. "This [Ochamchira] is a very comfortable place for basing naval forces. We have spoken about it on many occasions and if Russia makes a relevant decision we will be definitely interested in it. The talks on the issue are underway," Minister Sergei Shamba said.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet uses a range of naval facilities in Ukraine's Crimea as part of a 1997 agreement, under which Ukraine agreed to lease the bases to Russia until 2017. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko announced in the summer that Ukraine would not extend the lease of the base in the Crimean city of Sevastopol beyond 2017, and urged the Russian fleet to start preparations for a withdrawal.

Iran Tests New Long-Range Missile

Neil Leslie — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 04:15:00 -0600

Iran says that it has successfully launched a new long-range surface-to-surface missile, reports the BBC. The Sajjil missile is capable of hitting targets in south-eastern Europe, including Greece and Turkey. With an effective range of 1930km, the Sajjil is also in range of targets in Bulgaria and Romania. However, Defence Minister Mohammed Najjar said the missile was a defensive weapon. "It will only land on the heads of those enemies... who want to make an aggression and invade the Islamic republic," he added.

Western nations and Israel suspect Iran is seeking to develop an atomic weapon and some have called for pre-emptive strikes against its facilities. The Pentagon said the latest test demonstrated the need for the US to press ahead with its planned missile shield in Europe.

British Royal Navy Repels Pirate Attack, Two Killed

Neil Leslie — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 04:14:00 -0600

The British Royal Navy has repelled a pirate attack on a Danish cargo ship off the coast of Yemen, reports the BBC. Two Somali pirates and one Yemeni national were killed in the ensuing clash. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed the incident took place Tuesday, when HMS Cumberland crew members tried to board a traditional wooden dhow. The Yemeni-flagged vessel was identified as having been involved in an earlier attack on the Danish shi.

Pirates have been causing havoc in one of the world's busiest shipping areas, making the waters off the Horn of Africa some of the world's most dangerous. Pirates have hijacked more than 30 ships so far this year, twice as many as last year, with the ransoms paid to them by governments or ship-owners far higher than in previous years. Somali pirates are believed to be responsible for nearly a third of all reported attacks on ships.

Russia Rejects U.S. Missile Shield Proposals

Neil Leslie — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 04:14:00 -0600

Russia on Wednesday rejected U.S. proposals aimed at easing concerns over a missile defense system in Europe, according to Reuters. Russia says the planned U.S. system will threaten its national security and that the administration of George W. Bush, which leaves office in January, has failed to allay its concerns. However, the Kremlin did point out that they would try to resolve the row once Barack Obama entered the White House in January.

"We will not give our agreement to these proposals and we will speak to the new administration," said the unidentified Kremlin source, who was quoted by Russia's three main news agencies, an indication the remarks reflect official policy. The Kremlin press office declined to comment.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said last week he planned to deploy missile systems near Poland's border in retaliation for U.S. plans to install elements of the proposed missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

8 People Killed in Russia Blast

Neil Leslie — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:30:00 -0600

8 people have been killed after a blast hit a minibus in Vladikavkaz. According to the BBC, the bomb was planted outside a busy market in the North Caucasus town. Vladikavkaz is the capital of North Ossetia which has, like neighbouring Ingushetia and Chechnya, suffered sporadic violence from militant groups. Investigators say the attack was well prepared and believe that the bomb may have been detonated by a female suicide attacker.

North Ossetia was the scene of the Beslan school siege in 2004, when pro-Chechen militants seized schoolchildren and teachers. It ended with more than 300 people dead after a bungled assault by Russian troops. So far no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Russia's President Dmitri Medvedev has ordered an investigation into the blast by the FSB.