Atlantic Update | Atlantic Council of the United States

Computer Game Wars: The Russia-Georgia Conflict

Peter Cassata | December 01, 2008

A humorous post from Brian Whitmore at RFE/RL's Transmission blog – "Talk About War Profiteering:"

"A new Russian computer game called 'Confrontation – Peace Enforcement,' which simulates a new war between Russia and Georgia, is due to appear in shops in December.
In the game, NATO member Poland supports an effort by Tbilisi to take back the breakaway South Ossetia region, while Ukraine blockades Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Russia then launches an attack on Georgia in response.
The Prague-based Bohemia Interactive Studio, meanwhile, has a new game in the works that looks at the Russia-Georgia conflict from a pro-Western perspective. According to The Moscow Times, the game stars a group of U.S. soldiers who intervene in a conflict in 'Chernarus,' a fictional ex-Soviet republic that strongly resembles Georgia."

The true test will be which game sells more copies...

UK Adopting the Euro?

James Joyner | December 01, 2008

The European Commission president says Britain is closer to joining the Eurozone. This is apparently news to the Brits.

The UK is "closer than ever before" to joining the euro, according to the European Commission's president. Jose Manuel Barroso told French radio that British politicians were considering the move because of the effects of the global credit crunch.

However Downing Street said its position on the euro remained the same. Shadow foreign secretary William Hague said it was "extraordinary" ministers were talking EU about joining the euro "behind the British people's backs".

In 1997 Gordon Brown set five economic tests which he had to judge were met before recommending UK euro entry. The key test is whether the UK economy is coming together with those of countries in the eurozone and whether this can be sustained in the long-term. The second test, linked to this, is whether there is sufficient flexibility to cope with economic change. The remaining three tests assess the impact of joining the euro on jobs, foreign investment and the financial services industry.

Mr Brown has been seen as less keen on the UK adopting the euro than predecessor as prime minister, Tony Blair.
Opinion polls have suggested that any vote on scrapping the pound and adopting the euro would be lost, and in the UK the currency has not been a significant political issue for years.

One wonders whether Barroso knows something the Brown government doesn't wish to devulge or is merely popping off. Then again, "closer than ever" is not the same as "close."

Ukrainian Arms, Georgian War?

Peter Cassata | December 01, 2008

Accusations that Ukraine improperly sold arms to Georgia during its August war with Russia continue to plague the Ukrainian political system. NYT:

"It may not matter that the [pro-Russian] opposition has provided no conclusive evidence of the claims, despite weeks of pronouncements that the evidence — once released — will be explosive. The claims alone, which have made headlines, have nonetheless helped to further undermine the government’s authority at a time of heightened political instability, while also roiling Ukraine’s already tense relationship with neighboring Russia.
At issue are accusations that the government of President Viktor A. Yushchenko, who supported Georgia during the crisis, covertly supplied it with weapons before and soon after the fighting broke out in August, and sold tanks and an antiaircraft system to the Georgians at reduced prices.
A parliamentary commission set up by Ukraine’s opposition parties has been investigating the claims, which also include allegations that the president decommissioned equipment sorely needed by Ukraine’s military and gave it to Georgia."

Yushchenko denies wrongdoing, noting that Ukraine has the right to sell arms to any country not under international sanctions, including Georgia. So what's the problem?

"The opposition lawmakers say the point is not whether Ukraine had a right to sell weapons to Georgia. They say the government secretly sent the arms, bypassing disclosure rules in order to avoid antagonizing Russia. They also say that some of the proceeds of the sales have gone not to the Treasury, but to people in Mr. Yushchenko’s circle, even as Ukraine’s military is in dire need of funding."

Similar accusations have been leveled at Yushchenko for months from Moscow. Putin even described the alleged weapons sales as a "crime against the Russian and Ukrainian people" at a meeting with Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko in early October. Surely the fact that the main opposition party, the Party of Regions, is broadly pro-Russian will not influence the evidence in parliament's report...

For his part, Yushchenko has vowed to continue Ukraine's arms sales to Georgia.

German General Issues Scathing Criticism of Berlin's Afghanistan Efforts

Peter Cassata | December 01, 2008

General Hans-Christoph Ammon, the head of the German army's elite special commando unit KSK, called Germany's contributions to the NATO mission in Afghanistan a "miserable failure" while speaking to the German press agency DPA. IHT:

"Breaking with a military tradition of keeping silent about policy, a top German general has branded his country's efforts in Afghanistan a failure, singling out its poor record in training the Afghan police and allocating development aid.
Germany was responsible for training the Afghan police, but the German Interior Ministry, led by the conservative Wolfgang Schäuble, has come under repeated criticism from the United States and other NATO allies for providing too few experts and inappropriate training.
[...]
The government had provided a mere €12 ($15.2) million for training the Afghan Army and police while the United States has already given more than $1 billion, he said. 'At that rate, it would take 82 years to have a properly trained police force,' he said. More damaging for Germany's reputation, Ammon said, was that its police-training mission was considered such a 'disaster' that the United States and EU had taken over responsibility."

Furthermore, the rare nature of Ammon's comments seems to have given gravity to his message:

"The Defense Ministry said Ammon was expressing his personal views. Even so, because such views are rare, security experts said they showed the level of frustration building among senior military officers over German reluctance to provide adequate financing for Afghan mission or even explain to the public why Germany has 4,500 soldiers there.
Neither Chancellor Angela Merkel nor her conservative defense minister, Franz-Josef Jung, have been willing to debate the issue publicly. For the first time since German soldiers were sent to Afghanistan six years ago, Jung referred in November to the 'Gefallene,' or fallen soldiers, who had died there."

Merkel is facing increasing pressure both from her Christian Democratic Union party as well as from outside critics to more fully address the Afghanistan issue and Germany's role there. This pressure will likely grow next year, as Obama is expected to push Europe for greater troop contributions to Afghanistan upon taking office.

Deal Reached with Somali Pirates over MV Faina

Peter Cassata | December 01, 2008

A ransom agreement has been reached with Somali pirates who hijacked a Ukrainian ship in September, UPI reported:

"The owners of a Ukrainian arms ship hijacked off Somalia more than two months ago have agreed to pirates' $20 million ransom demands, an official says.

The Kenya Seafarers Association said Sunday that the MV Faina, which was carrying a cargo of Soviet-era tanks and other munitions to Kenya, will be freed as soon as its owners can work out a payment schedule with the Somali pirates who seized it September 25 in the Gulf of Aden, CNN reported."

According to the BBC, Kenya's government claims the ship's 33 tanks, grenade launchers, and ammunition are for its military, not destined for the autonomous southern Sudan region as had been speculated at the time of the MV Faina's seizure. Additionally, the pirates backed down from their initial demand of $35 million – how kind.

Terrorist's Goal: War Between India and Pakistan

Neil Richard Leslie | December 01, 2008

India-Pakistan experts suggested that last week's attacks on Mumbai were designed to provoke a war between the two countries, thereby scuppering President-elect Obama's plans for peace in the region, which has been at the top of his agenda. The Times:

Relations between India and Pakistan were on a knife edge last night amid fears that Delhi’s response to the Mumbai attacks could undermine the Pakistani army’s campaign against Islamic militants on the frontier with Afghanistan. Officials and analysts in the region believe that last week’s atrocities were designed to provoke a crisis, or even a war, between the nuclear-armed neighbours, diverting Islamabad’s attention from extremism in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and thus relieving pressure on al-Qaeda, Taleban and other militants based there.
One analyst even described the attacks as a “pre-emptive strike” against Barack Obama’s strategy to put Pakistan and Afghanistan at the centre of US foreign policy. The United States and its allies now face a balancing act in supporting India’s efforts to investigate the Mumbai attacks, without jeopardizing Pakistan’s crucial support for the Nato campaign in Afghanistan.
[...]
The Indian government is now considering a range of responses, including suspending its five-year peace process with Pakistan, closing their border, stopping direct flights and sending troops to the frontier, according to Indian officials and analysts.

With elections in May, India’s government is under enormous pressure to respond to the attacks, which it believes was carried out by the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. Yesterday Pakistan threatened to deploy troops to the border with India in response to what a Pakistani security officer called a heightening of tensions. Troops may be diverted from the tribal areas the official said, leaving the troublesome Afghan border vulnerable to greater militant activity.

NATO Tensions Over Ukraine/Georgia Membership

Neil Richard Leslie | December 01, 2008

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice will meet with NATO ministers to discuss controversial plans for proposed Ukrainian and Georgian membership of the alliance. Financial Times:

The US wants to defuse tensions with other Nato members on when Georgia and Ukraine will join the alliance by focusing on internal political and security reforms both countries must accomplish before they can join.
As she prepares for a two-day meeting of Nato foreign ministers tomorrow, Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, has said Washington will not press for the two former Soviet republics to gain immediate entry to the alliance's Membership Application Plan (Map).
Nato members agreed at a Bucharest summit this year that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members. But Germany, France and other states made clear the immediate offer of Map - a key stage in the Nato application process - would be seen by Russia as provocative.

Last week Britain had suggested finding other ways to bring the two countries into the alliance, and the U.S. seemed to back away from plans for full membership. The meeting will also focus on a new security architecture for Europe proposed by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

Today's Editorials 11/30/2008

Neil Richard Leslie | November 30, 2008

The Target Was Democracy, Not Injustice - Editorial, The Guardian

A Cloud Over India's Muslims - Martha Nussbaum, LA Times

The Economic Cost of the Mumbai Tragedy - Arvind Panagariya, Forbes

An F for Bush's Iran Policy - David Ignatius, Washington Post

Road Map in Iraq - Editorial, Washington Post

Obama's Iraq Inheritance - Editorial, New York Times

China: Don't Isolate, Integrate - Richard N. Haass, Newsweek

Pakistan Threatens Troop Buildup on India Border

James Joyner | November 30, 2008

Tensions between India and Pakistan have risen dramatically as a result of the Mumbai terror attacks. WSJ:

A Pakistani official warned Saturday that troops would be diverted from its war against al Qaeda and Taliban militants and deployed on the Indian border if Pakistan felt threatened by its neighbor in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attacks. A senior security official accused India of heightening tension between the two nuclear-armed nations by blaming "elements from Pakistan" for the coordinated terrorist attacks against Indian commercial capital which killed 195 people. "The next 48 hours are critical in determining how things unfold," the top security official told a group of journalists. He said the war on terror wouldn't be Pakistan's priority in the event of India military buildup on eastern borders.

Indian officials see Pakistan's complicity for the worst terrorist attacks on their soil which they said were carried out by Islamic militants with links to Pakistan. Pakistan has demanded that India present hard evidence and has strenuously condemned the attacks. President Asif Ali Zardari also said that nobody backed by Pakistani state was involved. "If they have evidence they should share it with us," Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said Saturday on his return from Delhi. "Our hands are clean."
[...]

Pakistan said it was willing to help India into the investigation into last week's grisly attacks and share intelligence, but won't be brow beaten. Mr. Zardari on Saturday warned India of any "overreaction" and vowed to take action against Islamic militant group found involved in the attack.

[...]

Pakistan is facing a serious economic crisis and terrorist attacks present most serious threat to the country's internal security. "It is not an ideal situation to go to war, but we will have no choice but to defend ourselves if threatened by India," the security official said.

Derek Reverson's call for India-Pakistan intelligence cooperation should be heeded; it's looking rather unlikely that it will.

More Gunfire on Georgia Border

James Joyner | November 30, 2008

Yet another shooting incident has taken place on the Georgia-South Ossetia border. AP:

Georgian and separatist South Ossetian authorities are accusing each other of opening fire across the line of control in the ex-Soviet republic. Nobody was hurt, but the accusations have added to tension following the August war that strengthened Russian and separatist control over Georgia's South Ossetia region.

The South Ossetian government said Sunday that a village came under sporadic automatic-weapons fire from Georgian-controlled territory for several hours late Saturday. It said South Ossetian forces did not return fire. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili acknowledged that Georgian forces fired shots but said they were responding to gunfire from South Ossetian-controlled territory.

What's most noteworthy here is the seemingly universal treatment of South Ossetia as a de facto separate state.