April 5, 2007

COMMENTARY
Ukraine's Latest Test
By ADRIAN KARATNYCKY April 5, 2007

Two and a half years after the Orange Revolution captured the imagination of the democratic world, Ukraine is facing another political crisis. Again, the standoff pits the pro-Western forces of President Viktor Yushchenko against the Europe-skeptics and pro-Russians allied with Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and his Party of Regions. On Monday, President Yushchenko dissolved the parliament and called for new elections on May 27.

Mr. Yushchenko's tough-minded actions were driven by three factors:

First, in the nine months since the Party of Regions cobbled together a governing majority with support from Communists and Socialists, its leaders have worked to erode the president's powers by usurping his constitutional role as the architect of foreign policy, diminishing his power to issue binding decrees and weakening the National Security Council. Second, through a variety of blandishments, patronage and, according to opposition forces, massive bribes, some two dozen deputies have defected to the governing coalition, raising the prospect that over time it may attain a constitutional majority that would marginalize the role of the presidency. Mr. Yushchenko described the organized defections as an attempt at a "revision of the political results of the 2006 elections." And last, many in President Yushchenko's inner circle are convinced that the government is filled with high-ranking officials carrying out Russia's bidding.

In the past, Mr. Yushchenko has earned a reputation for stoic patience and procrastination. Some have interpreted these traits as weakness. But as the president made clear his week, when he decides to act there is no turning back. This time, as during the Orange Revolution, Mr. Yushchenko was spurred to action by the surprising level of public outrage at the growing domination of the Regions party. On Saturday, with scant preparation, over 100,000 nonviolent opposition protesters gathered in Kiev's central square. Their enthusiastic expression of support for new elections appears to have turned the tide and settled the issue.

The last few days have been filled with Sturm und Drang declarations on both sides about "anticonstitutional actions" and the "usurpation of power." And there is a danger that Russia will seek to exploit the disarray to promote economic and political reintegration.

Notwithstanding such dangers, most factors point to a peaceful and democratic resolution, either through snap elections or through rulings by the Constitutional Court, heretofore deadlocked and unwilling to act to resolve the mounting dispute.

The president remains in firm control over the armed forces, the militarized detachments of the militia, and the security services. The country's mainstream media are open and provide reliable and responsible information. Regional governors have taken a stand solidly behind the president while the Central Election Commission said it is ready to hold elections. And if push comes to shove, events will be determined in the capital Kiev, where the tandem of President Yushchenko and firebrand oppositionist Yulia Tymoshenko commands overwhelming public support. Ukraine is not an incipient Yugoslavia. There is no ethno-political divide and each of its regions (apart from Crimea) has a solid ethnic Ukrainian majority. Moreover, 16 years into independence, the vast majority of the political establishment on both the "Orange" (Yushchenko-Tymoshenko) and Blue (Regions) sides is committed to Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

At the same time, there are signs of disagreement and disarray in the governing coalition. While the Socialists, a minor party that stands to lose its parliamentary place in a new vote, and Communists are seeking radical responses, with some leaders calling for the elimination of the presidency, and others demanding the president's impeachment, moderates in the Party of Regions, who are allied with major business interests, have been sending signals that they are interested in compromise.

Despite a twofold hike in natural gas prices and a spike in the price of petroleum, Ukraine's economy is booming. It grew 7% last year and is set to make similar gains his year, driven mainly by banking, the metals and chemicals industries, retail and real estate.

As a result, the business community backs both President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yanukovych and does not want protracted conflict. Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man and one of the Regions party's most influential leaders, said Tuesday that "no matter how hard it is, we will have to sit down at the negotiating table again and again." He called for leaders on all sides to refrain from incendiary rhetoric and declared that "unresolved political warfare stands in the way of economic growth."

Ukraine has seen the emergence of an engaged citizenry, has survived several government changes in contested elections, and has an emerging middle class and business elite interested in stability. All of this makes it likely that Ukraine will come through this crisis with its democratic institutions intact. There is even a chance that, after the people have spoken at the ballot box, it will be possible to accelerate the major economic reforms everyone expected after the Orange Revolution in 2004, when the world watched with hope and trepidation the difficult birth of Ukraine's democracy.

Mr. Karatnycky is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council of the U.S. and founder and president of the Orange Circle.